Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
31,862
total events across belligerents · 94 daily data points
Annotated milestones
1 of 4
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
259,186
single-side data only
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week14 weeks
Bottom Line
We assess with moderate confidence that the US-Iran war — now in its 69th day — remains at peak escalation despite a tenuous ceasefire, with active naval exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz undermining diplomatic efforts and sustaining severe global energy-market disruption. A US intelligence assessment concluding Tehran can withstand a prolonged naval campaign suggests no near-term resolution.
Key Developments (last 24–48 hours)
May 9 — US and Iranian forces traded fire
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
Top 10 shown · global share % = country’s share of worldwide production at this stageFull dataset via API · contact
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology
This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 20 dispatches across 19 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.
Event volume and casualty counts key off US as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.
