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The GeoMemo Editorial

Long-form arguments, published when they’re ready.

Not a daily blog. A slow publication. When our analysts have something to say, they say it at the length it deserves, with the evidence it requires, under their name — from a multi-capital realist lens, not Washington’s, not Beijing’s.

13 pieces · updated AUG 20 · 2026 · Subscribe
cover · 01
GeoMemo Analysis

The Makkah Pact Is Not the Threat India Fears

Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan signed a defence pact in Mecca and headline writers called it an “Islamic NATO.” We read the pact, its unpublished text and the data to ask what it really means for New Delhi — louder on paper than in practice.

GM
GeoMemo Analysis·AUG 20 · 2026·12 min
FilterAll · 13Essay · 4Red Team · 3Methodology · 1Interview · 1Founder's Journal · 1
Recent long-form · 12 pieces
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Livecover · 02
GeoMemo OSINT Estimate

The Space Jam

We are filling the sky with satellites faster than anyone can say how many it can hold. Inside the coming orbital crunch — the megaconstellation era, the debris math, and the fight over who governs low-Earth orbit — read across nearly 3,000 reports.

AUG 19 · GeoMemo Analysis22 MIN
Livecover · 03
GeoMemo OSINT Estimate

The US–Iran War

An intelligence estimate of the war between the United States and Iran — from the opening strikes of 28 February 2026 to the August standoff. Reconstructed from 70,000+ reports and the structured intelligence our machines pulled from them, read with the tradecraft of the analyst, not the certainty of the partisan.

AUG 13 · GeoMemo Analysis40 MIN
Previewcover · 04
▲ Red Team

If you think Russia is losing, you're reading the wrong maps.

For six weeks our own models have nudged toward a Ukrainian-favorable line. The summer-campaign math does not support it. A deliberate argument against our own consensus — published because the disagreement was real.

APR 17 · Gabriel Volkov24 MIN
Previewcover · 05
Essay

Beijing's Taiwan options, ranked by cost.

Invasion is the least likely. Quarantine is the most likely. A full treatment of the spectrum — economic coercion through exclusion zone — with probabilities and prerequisites for each.

APR 12 · Daniel Park28 MIN
Previewcover · 06
Methodology

How we built the seven-pillar stability score — and what it can't see.

Transparency about the scoring formula: what each weight means, where residuals concentrate, which countries are systematically mis-scored (hello, Gulf monarchies) and what we're doing to fix it.

APR 8 · Dr. Nadia Cheng16 MIN
Previewcover · 07
Essay

The Africa Corps is a state, not a militia.

Wagner's successor in the Sahel has crossed the threshold from private-military contractor to political enterprise. A sustained argument built on flight-tracking, Arabic-language reporting, and the Bamako procurement record.

APR 5 · Ana Popescu22 MIN
Previewcover · 08
▲ Red Team

Why the breakout might take longer than we're saying.

The case for moderate skepticism: the public imagery and sequencing claim a tighter timeline than weaponization history supports. An argument made to keep our own calibration honest.

MAR 28 · Dr. Nadia Cheng19 MIN
Previewcover · 09
Interview

“We got the 2022 Moldova warning right. Here's what we got wrong.”

A conversation with a former Moldovan intelligence official about open-source warning, how analysts filter signal from provocation, and the one thing Western services still refuse to internalize.

MAR 22 · Ana Popescu38 MIN
Previewcover · 10 · typographic
Founder's Journal

Why I built GeoMemo.

The origin piece. What was wrong with how geopolitical intelligence was published and consumed, the moment I decided to try something — and what I'm still figuring out.

MAR 15 · Abhishek Quantish11 MIN
Previewcover · 11
Essay

Why markets are better Iran analysts than governments.

The Riyadh credit-default-swap market, the VLCC tanker-freight curve, and the rial's black-market rate — three signals that beat state judgment for six weeks straight.

MAR 8 · Abhishek Quantish18 MIN
Previewcover · 12
Essay

Lithography, export controls, and the Taiwan ripple.

The ASML-TSMC-Beijing triangle is the most consequential supply-chain chokepoint of the decade. A step-by-step on who holds what leverage, and where the real fragility sits.

MAR 2 · Daniel Park26 MIN
Previewcover · 13
▲ Red Team

Our NATO thesis is probably too optimistic. Here's why.

A structured case against our own consensus: Article 5 credibility is a belief, beliefs are state-dependent, and the state we're in is not the one the consensus assumes.

FEB 22 · Gabriel Volkov21 MIN
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