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The GeoMemo Editorial

Long-form arguments, published when they’re ready.

Not a daily blog. A slow publication. When our analysts have something to say, they say it at the length it deserves, with the evidence it requires, under their name — from a multi-capital realist lens, not Washington’s, not Beijing’s.

10 pieces · updated APR 17 · 2026 · Subscribe
cover · 01
▲ Red Team

If you think Russia is losing, you're reading the wrong maps.

For six weeks our own models have nudged toward a Ukrainian-favorable line. The summer-campaign math does not support it. A deliberate argument against our own consensus — published because the disagreement was real.

GV
Gabriel Volkov·APR 17 · 2026·24 min
FilterAll · 10Essay · 4Red Team · 3Methodology · 1Interview · 1Founder's Journal · 1
Recent long-form · 9 pieces
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cover · 02
Essay

Beijing's Taiwan options, ranked by cost.

Invasion is the least likely. Quarantine is the most likely. A full treatment of the spectrum — economic coercion through exclusion zone — with probabilities and prerequisites for each.

APR 12 · Daniel Park28 MIN
cover · 03
Methodology

How we built the seven-pillar stability score — and what it can't see.

Transparency about the scoring formula: what each weight means, where residuals concentrate, which countries are systematically mis-scored (hello, Gulf monarchies) and what we're doing to fix it.

APR 8 · Dr. Nadia Cheng16 MIN
cover · 04
Essay

The Africa Corps is a state, not a militia.

Wagner's successor in the Sahel has crossed the threshold from private-military contractor to political enterprise. A sustained argument built on flight-tracking, Arabic-language reporting, and the Bamako procurement record.

APR 5 · Ana Popescu22 MIN
cover · 05
▲ Red Team

Why the breakout might take longer than we're saying.

The case for moderate skepticism: the public imagery and sequencing claim a tighter timeline than weaponization history supports. An argument made to keep our own calibration honest.

MAR 28 · Dr. Nadia Cheng19 MIN
cover · 06
Interview

“We got the 2022 Moldova warning right. Here's what we got wrong.”

A conversation with a former Moldovan intelligence official about open-source warning, how analysts filter signal from provocation, and the one thing Western services still refuse to internalize.

MAR 22 · Ana Popescu38 MIN
cover · 07 · typographic
Founder's Journal

Why I built GeoMemo.

The origin piece. What was wrong with how geopolitical intelligence was published and consumed, the moment I decided to try something — and what I'm still figuring out.

MAR 15 · Abhishek Quantish11 MIN
cover · 08
Essay

Why markets are better Iran analysts than governments.

The Riyadh credit-default-swap market, the VLCC tanker-freight curve, and the rial's black-market rate — three signals that beat state judgment for six weeks straight.

MAR 8 · Abhishek Quantish18 MIN
cover · 09
Essay

Lithography, export controls, and the Taiwan ripple.

The ASML-TSMC-Beijing triangle is the most consequential supply-chain chokepoint of the decade. A step-by-step on who holds what leverage, and where the real fragility sits.

MAR 2 · Daniel Park26 MIN
cover · 10
▲ Red Team

Our NATO thesis is probably too optimistic. Here's why.

A structured case against our own consensus: Article 5 credibility is a belief, beliefs are state-dependent, and the state we're in is not the one the consensus assumes.

FEB 22 · Gabriel Volkov21 MIN
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