Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
6,125
total events across belligerents · 92 daily data points
Annotated milestones
2 of 4
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
2,302
640 Myanmar Military Junta · 1,662 India
Myanmar Military JuntaIndia
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week14 weeks
Market signal · Jade/Gems
—
USD · live data pending
Myanmar supplies 70% of global jade
Other watched market signals · 1 additional
Rare EarthREMX
Myanmar rare earth exports to China
Bottom Line
We assess with moderate confidence that the Myanmar civil war is entering a new phase of internationalization, driven primarily by U.S. strategic interest in securing rare earth mineral supply chains and countering Chinese dominance, as evidenced by secret U.S. talks with Myanmar's military-backed rulers. However, the evidence pack for this 24–48 hour cycle is extremely thin on ground-level conflict developments inside Myanmar, limiting our ability to assess battlefield dynamics.
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
Top 10 shown · global share % = country’s share of worldwide production at this stageFull dataset via API · contact
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology
This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 20 dispatches across 13 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.
Event volume and casualty counts key off MM as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.
