Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
11,355
total events across belligerents · 93 daily data points
Annotated milestones
1 of 4
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
164,151
56,525 Myanmar Military Junta · 107,626 India
Myanmar Military JuntaIndia
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week14 weeks
Market signal · Jade/Gems
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USD · live data pending
Myanmar supplies 70% of global jade
Other watched market signals · 1 additional
Rare EarthREMX
Myanmar rare earth exports to China
Bottom Line
We assess with moderate confidence that Myanmar's civil war has reached a critical humanitarian inflection point, with the military regime deliberately targeting medical infrastructure — exemplified by the destruction of Mrauk-U General Hospital killing at least 33 — while diplomatic pressure from ASEAN and European actors remains insufficient to alter the junta's calculus. The escalation score of 100/100 is consistent with the evidence.
Key Developments (last 24–48 hours)
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Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
Top 10 shown · global share % = country’s share of worldwide production at this stageFull dataset via API · contact
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology
This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 28 dispatches across 27 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.
Event volume and casualty counts key off MM as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.
