Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
16,077
total events across belligerents · 94 daily data points
Annotated milestones
3 of 4
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
11,586
2,981 Myanmar Military Junta · 8,605 India
Myanmar Military JuntaIndia
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week13 weeks
Market signal · Jade/Gems
—
USD · live data pending
Myanmar supplies 70% of global jade
Other watched market signals · 1 additional
Rare EarthREMX
Myanmar rare earth exports to China
Bottom Line
We assess with moderate confidence that Myanmar's civil war remains at maximum escalation, with the junta leveraging Chinese and Russian drone capabilities to mount tactical counteroffensives against ethnic resistance forces — particularly the Arakan Army — while the humanitarian crisis deepens with no prospect of near-term resolution. The new military administration's narrative of stability is assessed as misleading given ongoing ground offensives and mass displacement.
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Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
Top 10 shown · global share % = country’s share of worldwide production at this stageFull dataset via API · contact
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology
This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 24 dispatches across 22 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.
Event volume and casualty counts key off MM as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.
