Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
17,331
total events across belligerents · 91 daily data points
Annotated milestones
1 of 4
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
26,397
single-side data only
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week14 weeks
Market signal · Brent crude
—
USD/bbl · live data pending
Bottom Line
We assess with moderate confidence that the U.S.-Iran war is at a critical inflection point: a ceasefire is set to expire next week, and the U.S. is simultaneously pursuing a "grand bargain" through indirect talks while escalating economic and naval pressure via a full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The next 7 days will likely determine whether the conflict de-escalates toward a negotiated settlement or pivots to intensified economic warfare with risk of kinetic resumption.
#
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
Oil, lithium, semiconductors, rare-earth, and other strategic commodities
Critical resource exposure · pipeline pending
Critical-resource exposure tracking (oil, lithium, semiconductors, rare-earth, graphite) is being wired into the per-conflict view. Sign up for the API beta to be notified when the dataset is live.
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology
This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 20 dispatches across 10 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.
Event volume and casualty counts key off IR as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.
