Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
5,020
total events across belligerents · 92 daily data points
Annotated milestones
1 of 4
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
218,458
3,007 Syria · 215,451 Israel
SyriaIsrael
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week14 weeks
Bottom Line
We assess with high confidence that the US–Israel war against Iran has reached a critical diplomatic inflection point around day 65 of hostilities, with Iran submitting a 14-point peace proposal while simultaneously escalating maritime coercion in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict's global economic shockwaves—record US gas prices, an OPEC+ crisis following the UAE's exit, and energy-security scrambles across ASEAN and Europe—are now the primary vector through which this war affe
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology
This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 20 dispatches across 18 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.
Event volume and casualty counts key off SY as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.
