Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
747
total events across belligerents · 86 daily data points
Annotated milestones
3 of 4
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
1,871
single-side data only
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week13 weeks
Bottom Line
We assess with low confidence that the Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT) conflict has reached a critical inflection point driven not by direct combat reporting — which is absent from the evidence pack — but by a convergence of severe state-level stressors (banking crisis, measles epidemic, currency depreciation, diplomatic friction, and border incursions) that likely degrade Dhaka's capacity to manage the CHT insurgency and humanitarian situation. The escalation score of 100/1
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
Oil, lithium, semiconductors, rare-earth, and other strategic commodities
Critical resource exposure · pipeline pending
Critical-resource exposure tracking (oil, lithium, semiconductors, rare-earth, graphite) is being wired into the per-conflict view. Sign up for the API beta to be notified when the dataset is live.
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology
This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 42 dispatches across 21 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.
Event volume and casualty counts key off BD as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.
