Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
17,588
total events across belligerents · 91 daily data points
Annotated milestones
1 of 4
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
2,188
single-side data only
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week13 weeks
Bottom Line
We assess with high confidence that the US-Iran conflict over the Strait of Hormuz has reached a critical inflection point: the 60-day US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) officially expired on August 17, 2026, shipping through Hormuz has dropped to zero, and President Trump has threatened to declare the strait US territory — conditions that make near-term military escalation highly probable.
Key Developments (last 24–48 hours)
Aug 17 — The US-Iran MOU, signed
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
Neodymium-Praseodymium· White Mesa MillUnited Statesmining—13.0%
Top 10 shown · global share % = country’s share of worldwide production at this stageFull dataset via API · contact
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology
This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 20 dispatches across 17 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.
Event volume and casualty counts key off US as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.
