Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
34,075
total events across belligerents · 94 daily data points
Annotated milestones
1 of 4
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
4,341
single-side data only
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week13 weeks
Bottom Line
We assess with moderate confidence that the US-Iran conflict has entered a dangerous post-ceasefire escalation cycle: despite a memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed around June 18, 2026, both sides exchanged strikes on or around June 27 (Day 120 of the war), threatening collapse of the fragile diplomatic framework. The cyber dimension of this conflict — including the Handala actor — is not directly evidenced in the current pack, though US authorization of restricted AI cybers
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
Top 10 shown · global share % = country’s share of worldwide production at this stageFull dataset via API · contact
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology
This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 20 dispatches across 12 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.
Event volume and casualty counts key off US as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.
