Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
34,075
total events across belligerents · 94 daily data points
Annotated milestones
1 of 4
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
4,341
single-side data only
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week13 weeks
Bottom Line
We assess with moderate confidence that the US-Iran conflict has entered a dangerous new phase of mutual strikes despite a memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed on or around June 18, 2026, intended to end hostilities. The exchange of fire on approximately Day 120 of the war threatens to collapse the ceasefire framework, though continued Strait of Hormuz reopening suggests neither side seeks full re-escalation at this time.
Key Developments (last 24–48 hours)
**Jun 2
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
Top 10 shown · global share % = country’s share of worldwide production at this stageFull dataset via API · contact
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology
This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 20 dispatches across 12 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.
Event volume and casualty counts key off US as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.
