Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
3,801
total events across belligerents · 90 daily data points
Annotated milestones
1 of 4
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
6,519
single-side data only
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week13 weeks
Market signal · EUR/RUB
—
RUB · live data pending
Bottom Line
We assess with moderate confidence that the Russia-Ukraine conflict has entered a period of diplomatic stasis, with European allies actively working to sustain Ukraine support amid competing global crises — principally the U.S.-Iran war — that are diverting political attention and economic resources. No significant kinetic escalation on the Eastern European front was reported in the last 48 hours, consistent with the current escalation score of 0/100.
Key Developments (la
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology
This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 20 dispatches across 16 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.
Event volume and casualty counts key off UA as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.
