Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
20,547
total events across belligerents · 91 daily data points
Annotated milestones
1 of 4
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
3,200
1,012 Russia · 2,188 United States
RussiaUnited States
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week13 weeks
Market signal · EUR/RUB
—
RUB · live data pending
Bottom Line
We assess with moderate confidence that the US-Iran conflict has entered a dangerous escalatory phase, with Iranian attacks on UAE targets and Strait of Hormuz shipping driving global market disruption, coalition-building pressure from Washington, and a diplomatic stalemate over Tehran's nuclear program. Russia is not a principal belligerent in the active kinetic conflict described in this evidence pack; the escalation score of 100 reflects the US-Iran theater rather than direct
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology
This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 20 dispatches across 17 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.
Event volume and casualty counts key off RU as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.
