Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
33,778
total events across belligerents · 93 daily data points
Annotated milestones
1 of 4
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
4,331
single-side data only
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week14 weeks
Bottom Line
We assess with moderate confidence that the US-Iran conflict in the Persian Gulf has reached a critical diplomatic inflection point: a 14-point memorandum of understanding is under negotiation, but Tehran has publicly rejected key US terms, and active naval operations—including a US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz (in place since April 13)—continue unabated, sustaining the maximum escalation score of 100.
Key Developments (last 24–48 hours)
May 7 — US and Iran are wor
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
Top 10 shown · global share % = country’s share of worldwide production at this stageFull dataset via API · contact
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology
This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 20 dispatches across 18 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.
Event volume and casualty counts key off US as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.
