GeoMemo
WED, MAY 13 · EDT
Brief›Conflicts

Minnesota unrest.

Cold · 0/100Civil Warescalating1 dispatches indexed
Escalation
0
·Stable · /100
Events · 24h
1
▼-124 vs 7d avg
Fatalities · 7d
10,288
▼-39,330 vs prior 7d
Media divergence
—
·Divergence
Primary belligerent
United States
Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
32,173
total events across belligerents · 95 daily data points
Annotated milestones
1 of 4
2008 GLOBAL2026-02-122026-03-312026-05-19
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
259,186
single-side data only
2026-02-092026-05-1179,437
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week14 weeks
No daily brief has been generated for this conflict yet. Briefs are produced for the highest-activity conflicts first; this one becomes eligible as coverage volume climbs.
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
SeverityDateEventCountries
10.0May 11US-Israel War on IranUS
10.0May 9US-Israel war on IranUS
10.0May 8Nuclear ThreatUS
10.0May 6US and Israel Attack IranUS
10.0May 6US-Israel War on IranUS
10.0May 59/11 AttackUS
10.0May 3US-Iran ConflictUS
10.0May 2US-Israel Attack IranUS
10.0May 2US-Israeli War on IranUS
10.0May 1US-Iran WarUS
Top 10 shownFull dataset available via API · contact for access
Top 10
Strategic transfers
Arms, tech, and equipment flows where seller or buyer is a belligerent
DateFlowEquipmentTypeStatus
May 8US→CNNvidia AI serverscritical tech transferproposed
May 4US→DPRK-linked threat intelligenceintelligence sharingdelivered
Apr 29US→CNsemiconductorcritical tech transferannounced
Apr 29US→CNsemiconductorcritical tech transferannounced
Apr 27US→APG-66 and APG-68arms salecontracted
Apr 27US→APG-66 and APG-68arms salecontracted
Apr 24US→ROAmerican artificial intelligence-based drone defense systemtech transferproposed
Apr 23TW→USA13 chip processcritical tech transferproposed
Apr 22US→KRsatelliteintelligence sharingannounced
Apr 22US→KRsatelliteintelligence sharingannounced
Top 10 shownFull dataset available via API · contact for access
Top 10
Critical resource flows
Oil, lithium, semiconductors, rare-earth, and other strategic commodities
MineralCountryStageReservesGlobal %
Helium· Galactica-PegasusUnited Statesprocessing—40.0%
Helium· LaBargeUnited Statesprocessing—40.0%
HeliumUnited Statesprocessing—40.0%
Lithium· Albemarle Corp lithium mineUnited Statesrefining—2.1%
Lithium· AppalachiansUnited Statesrefining—2.1%
Lithium· ArkansasUnited Statesrefining—2.1%
Lithium· Aurora Uranium projectUnited Statesrefining—2.1%
Lithium· Black MountainUnited Statesrefining—2.1%
Lithium· Carolina LithiumUnited Statesrefining—2.1%
Lithium· ioneer Ltd lithium projectUnited Statesrefining—2.1%
Top 10 shown · global share % = country’s share of worldwide production at this stageFull dataset via API · contact
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology

This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 0 dispatches across 0 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.

Event volume and casualty counts key off US as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.