Escalation trajectory · 90 days · United States as anchor
33,338
total events · 90 daily data points
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
4,331
single-side data only
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week14 weeks
Bottom Line
We assess with moderate confidence that the US-Iran war — now in approximately its 69th day — remains at peak escalation despite a tenuous ceasefire, with active naval exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz undermining diplomatic efforts and sustaining severe global energy market disruption. A US intelligence analysis has concluded Tehran can withstand a sustained national-level conflict, suggesting no near-term capitulation pathway.
Key Developments (last 24–48 hours)
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
Oil, lithium, semiconductors, rare-earth, and other strategic commodities
Critical resource exposure · pipeline pending
Critical-resource exposure tracking (oil, lithium, semiconductors, rare-earth, graphite) is being wired into the per-conflict view. Sign up for the API beta to be notified when the dataset is live.
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology
This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 20 dispatches across 19 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.
Event volume and casualty counts key off US as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.
