Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
17,569
total events across belligerents · 92 daily data points
Annotated milestones
2 of 4
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
16
single-side data only
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week14 weeks
Bottom Line
We assess with low confidence that the Boko Haram insurgency — as formally scoped — cannot be meaningfully briefed today. The evidence pack contains no reporting on Boko Haram or the Lake Chad Basin theater. Available intelligence instead covers an Ethiopian/Eritrean conflict escalation in Tigray and unrelated global developments. The escalation score of 100/100 appears to reflect a mislabeled or conflated conflict feed rather than verified Boko Haram activity.
Key De
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology
This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 23 dispatches across 15 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.
Event volume and casualty counts key off ET as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.
