Escalation trajectory · 90 days · Uganda as anchor
179
total events · 90 daily data points
Annotated milestones
2 of 10
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
2,257
69 Uganda · 2,188 United States
UgandaUnited States
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week13 weeks
Bottom Line
We assess with low confidence that the Boko Haram insurgency in Nigeria's Lake Chad Basin has seen no directly reported kinetic activity in the last 48 hours; the evidence pack contains zero Nigeria-focused Boko Haram events. The escalation score of 100/100 appears driven by regional jihadist network dynamics — particularly IS-affiliate activity in East Africa and Somalia — rather than verified Boko Haram operations. The evidence pack is critically thin on the named confl
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
Oil, lithium, semiconductors, rare-earth, and other strategic commodities
Critical resource exposure · pipeline pending
Critical-resource exposure tracking (oil, lithium, semiconductors, rare-earth, graphite) is being wired into the per-conflict view. Sign up for the API beta to be notified when the dataset is live.
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology
This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 26 dispatches across 12 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.
Event volume and casualty counts key off UG as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.
