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La NacionArgentina · Netherlands · Algeria
Daily briefOperational risk · 90d →
Costa Rica.
Republic of Costa Rica · San Jos · 5.3M people · central-america-n-caribbean
Governmentpresidential republicLanguagesSpanish (official), EnglishArea51.1K km²Sanctioned entities22Active conflicts1Mentions 7d1CIA· Jan 2026
Stability Score?How the stability score is computedA weighted composite of seven pillars— conflict intensity, event volatility, arms activity, economic health, market stress, sanctions exposure, and humanitarian proxy. Each pillar is scored 0–100 (higher = healthier). The composite is weighted (conflict 25%, economy 20%, events 15%, the rest 10% each) and recomputed daily from strategic events, World Bank indicators, arms-transfer data, and sanctions records.
Risk tier: Critical < 25 · High 25–50 · Elevated 50–75 · Stable≥ 75.
Risk tier: Critical < 25 · High 25–50 · Elevated 50–75 · Stable≥ 75.
91.6
Stable risk
30-day trend
Intelligence briefGenerated Jun 27, 2026 · CLAUDE-HAIKU-4-5-20251001 · 4 sources
The other side. See this brief from Costa Rica's frame — local-language sources elevated, Western framing flagged.
BLUF · Bottom Line Up Front
Magnitude 7.4 earthquake kills 80+ in CR/Panama; regional rightward shift creates political instability context
A severe 7.4 magnitude earthquake struck Costa Rica and Panama on 25 June, killing over 80 people and causing significant infrastructure damage. This disaster occurs amid a broader Latin American rightward political shift exemplified by Colombia's De la Espriella victory, which may complicate CR's disaster response coordination and reshape regional political dynamics during recovery operations.
Confidence HIGH▲Divergence LOWSingle-source claims 2▲ 2
Costa Rica · 90-day event volume
44
total events · 90 daily data points
Annotated milestones
2 of 8
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Key Judgments
01
Magnitude 7.4 earthquake represents most immediate threat to CR stability and civilian welfare
Intelligence event confirms 7.4 magnitude earthquake with 80+ confirmed deaths affecting Costa Rica and Panama on 25 June 2026. This represents an acute humanitarian crisis requiring immediate emergency response, search-and-rescue operations, and medical services surge capacity across both nations.
high confidence1 sourceEN
02
Regional rightward political shift may affect CR's disaster response and international coordination
Latin American rightward consolidation, evidenced by Colombia's De la Espriella victory and similar movements across the region, creates a fragmented political landscape during earthquake recovery. CR's traditionally center-left governance posture may face coordination challenges with newly right-wing regional partners on emergency aid, reconstruction funding, and bilateral support mechanisms.
moderate confidence2 sourcesEN · ES
03
Global leftist movements' strategic confusion may limit CR's access to traditional progressive assistance networks
Reported terminal crisis among global leftist movements constrains CR's ability to leverage traditional progressive alliances for disaster relief and reconstruction support. This institutional weakness across left-wing international networks may redirect CR toward market-based or right-leaning regional partners for aid.
moderate confidence1 sourceEN
Watchlist · next 48 hours
01
Earthquake damage assessment and casualty count verification in next 48 hours
Indicator · Official government death toll update, infrastructure damage reports from CFIA or national emergency services, confirmation of affected provinces and critical infrastructure (hospitals, water systems, power grids)
95%▲ 60pp
02
Regional emergency aid coordination between CR and newly right-wing Latin American governments
Indicator · Public statements from CR government accepting or requesting aid from Colombian, Peruvian, or other regional partners; bilateral emergency coordination agreements announced; evidence of political friction in aid negotiations
65%▲ 40pp
03
International financial institution response and reconstruction funding announcements
Indicator · World Bank, IDB, or IMF emergency loan/grant announcements; bilateral donor pledges from non-regional actors; evidence of financing gaps in reconstruction planning
70%
04
Secondary seismic activity and aftershock impact on ongoing rescue operations
Indicator · Magnitude 5.0+ aftershocks reported; new structural collapses; rescue operations suspended; updated seismic hazard assessments from USGS or regional monitoring
60%
+How we produced this brief
Generated under ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft standards by CLAUDE-HAIKU-4-5-20251001. Evidence pack drawn from 5 dispatches over the trailing 48 hours, plus structured intelligence-event rows, extracted quantities, and threat-evidence records.
Local-language reporting is incorporated where available (EN, ES), with explicit divergence flagging where local and Western framing diverge. Every claim ships with a calibrated confidence statement.
Event timelineLast 7 days · 1 milestone · hover for context
JUN 25
2026
Costa Rica Earthquake
earthquake · severity 7
Elevated
Stability components7-pillar breakdown · each 0–100, higher = healthier · 30-day trend per pillar
Conflict Intensity
100/100 · 25% wt
target conflicts: 0domestic conflicts: 0max escalation score: 0
Event Volatility
100/100 · 15% wt
target events: 0actor only events: 2domestic events: 0severe domestic: 0instability rate: 0.10%article coverage 90d: 507
Arms Activity
100/100 · 10% wt
arms imports: 0total value usd: $0conflict amplified: no
Economic Health
83/100 · 20% wt
gdp growth pct: 4.32%inflation pct: -0.41%unemployment pct: 6.94%
Market Stress
0/100 · 10% wt
total signals 30d: 1negative signals 30d: 1
Sanctions Exposure
96/100 · 10% wt
sanctioned entities: 22is sanctioning power: no
Humanitarian Proxy
91/100 · 10% wt
life expectancy: 81literacy rate: —
Risk matrix5 enterprise-decision dimensions · derived from the 7 stability pillars · higher = more risk
Political9Stable
Security0Stable
Economic50Elevated
Regulatory4Stable
Operational21Stable
Risk dimensions are derived from the 7 stability pillars. Higher score = more risk (inverted from the stability score, where higher = healthier). Operational is a weighted composite intended for enterprise-decision use.
Peer comparisonSame-region countries by stability score · this country highlighted
Peer comparison · central-america-n-caribbean
Rank 30 of 33
0147.0
0258.0
0369.5
0474.1
0576.1
0678.2
0784.6
0885.0
3096.6
EconomyWorld Bank · 10-year series · 16 indicators
GDP (current USD)
WB· 2024$95.4B
▲ $8.9B YoY
GDP per capita
WB· 2024$18.6K
▲ $1.6K YoY
Inflation (CPI)
WB· 2024-0.4%
▼ 0.9% YoY
Unemployment
WB· 20246.9%
▼ 1.4% YoY
Population
WB· 20245.1M
▲ 24.4K YoY
Military spend %GDP
WB—
Life expectancy
WB· 202481.0 yrs
▲ 0.2 yrs YoY
Internet users %
WB· 202487.2%
▲ 1.8% YoY
Security8 recent events · 1 conflicts · 0 transfers
Event volume · 90 days
44
Casualties (killed) · 90 days
80
High-severity events
2026-06-25
Costa Rica Earthquake
Earthquake80 killed
2026-06-13
Costa Rica Backs US
Diplomatic Tension
2026-06-13
Costa Rica Withdraws Embassy
Diplomatic Tension
2026-06-13
Costa Rica Supports US
Diplomatic Tension
2026-06-13
Embassy Withdrawal
Diplomatic Visit
2026-06-13
Cuban Opposition Visit
Diplomatic Visit
2026-06-11
Storm Cristina hits CR
Flood
2026-06-09
Costa Rica Deflation
Economic Indicator
Active conflicts involving Costa Rica
US-Panama conflict
Maritime · 4 dispatches
Cold · 0
Latest dispatches10 in country corpus · sources come online as coverage grows
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Think tanks · this country1 article from research institutions tracking Costa Rica
Top entitiesMost-mentioned actors in Costa Rica-tagged articles · last 30 days
Forward calendar · relatedUpcoming scheduled events · co-mentioned countries · conflicts · recent reports
+Methodology · how this profile is built
This profile draws from four data tiers. Baseline facts (geography, languages, religion) are from the CIA World Factbook snapshot of January 2026 — the final snapshot before the website was retired. Economic indicators refresh daily from the World Bank. Events, conflicts, dispatches, and entity mentions flow continuously from our continuous intelligence graph — sources come online as we add them. Intelligence briefs are generated daily under ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft standards.
Coverage of Costa Rica will sharpen as we add local-language sources. Every field above carries a provenance chip so you can judge freshness for yourself.