Cuba
An enterprise-decision view of Cuba’s operational risk over the next 90 days. Scenario probabilities, sanctions exposure, chokepoints, and political outlook — for risk officers, supply chain teams, and analysts who need to act, not just read.
Cuba faces its worst economic crisis in decades with energy blockade compounding 60+ years of sanctions. Venezuelan oil shipments halted, Sherritt mining operations ceased, and remittance pressure rising. Historical precedent (1994 rafter crisis) suggests similar triggers produce mass migration within 90 days.
- Ration book shrinkage and subsistence-level government allocations
- Currency collapse: dollar reached 540 CUP (May 2026), euro 618 CUP
- Power outages affecting 55% of territory, lasting 40+ hours
- Informal market volatility and food unavailability
Removal of congressional War Powers oversight combined with explicit Trump administration military option exploration and Rubio's hawkish positioning creates conditions for rapid escalation. Warship positioning and surveillance deployment suggest operational planning already underway.
- Senate Republicans blocked War Powers resolution 51-47 (April 28, 2026)
- Trump administration exploring military options alongside sanctions expansion
- $240 million surveillance drone deployed over Cuba
- Secretary Rubio emphasis on Cuba's 90-mile proximity as strategic justification
Díaz-Canel government shows signs of fracture: failed secret diplomacy, inability to reverse economic spiral, and aging leadership structure. Raúl Castro's declining health/influence reduces institutional cohesion. Power outages and ration reductions constrain regime's capacity to maintain control apparatus over 90-day horizon.
- Raúl Castro noted as lacking Fidel's confrontational capability
- Failed backchannel attempt to Trump (sealed letter intercepted April 2026)
- International isolation despite African/Latin American rhetorical support
- Energy crisis preventing economic stabilization measures
US is actively pressuring Mexico via USMCA framework and political leverage. Although Sheinbaum publicly defended humanitarian exports, sustained US pressure combined with domestic Mexican political shifts could reverse this within 90 days, removing Cuba's largest remaining fuel lifeline after Venezuela.
- Explicit US pressure on Mexico to halt fuel exports (April 2026)
- USMCA leverage available to US in trade negotiations
- Democratic congressman disclosed backchannel talks on Cuban oil
- Mexico's public support for Cuba (President Sheinbaum) faces diplomatic pressure
Sherritt withdrawal demonstrates sanctions effectiveness on foreign capital. Trump administration signaling continued expansion of secondary sanctions and sectoral targeting. Risk of cascading withdrawals by remaining European and Latin American investors over 90-day window as sanctions penalties escalate.
- Sherritt International withdrew May 2026, eliminating 10-15% of power generation
- Trump sanctions expansion targeting secondary partners
- Tourism decline noted in currency market analysis
- Canadian and other Western firms reassessing exposure
Díaz-Canel's government faces acute legitimacy challenges as economic collapse (power outages 55% of territory, ration shrinkage, currency collapse to 540 CUP/USD) compounds political isolation. Raúl Castro's reported lack of Fidel's confrontational capability reduces institutional adaptability. Failed backchannel to Trump (April 2026) signals regime desperation and division over negotiation strategy. International rhetorical support from African and Latin American states provides minimal material relief. Over 90 days, regime faces choice between economic concessions (resisted as political surrender) or escalating repression to maintain control during humanitarian crisis-either path risks internal fracture.
+Glossary & methodology
Operational risk here means the practical exposure that a business, government, or institution operating in or around Cuba would face. We model five dimensions (Political / Security / Economic / Regulatory / Operational) using a weighted blend of seven underlying pillars.
Scenarios are generated daily under ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft standards. Each scenario carries a calibrated probability, named indicators that would confirm or deny it, and impact across regulatory / kinetic / economic axes.
This page is the deeper-read companion to the Cuba country page for risk officers and operators. The country page covers daily news, judgments, and watchlist; this page covers 90-day strategic outlook.