Four years in, the loss-exchange ratios have stopped moving. Every capital's briefer now cites the same three metrics — and drops the fourth that used to actually matter. The piece reads the frozen ratios not as stalemate but as a new equilibrium, and asks what comes next.
This week's feature
The Russia-Donbas loss exchange, four years in · editorial · 22 min
Loss-exchange ratios stopped moving around 2026 Q1. Kyiv and Moscow both quietly dropped the "sustainment math" from their briefings. This is about what replaces it. Continue reading →
Supporting reports
- Russia Country Brief · April 2026 · country brief · confidence 78 · Read →
- Ukraine conflict · 30-day outlook · conflict brief · confidence 72 · Read →
- European defense-spending recalibration · sovereign brief · confidence 81 · Read →
Red team note
The consensus view this week was that the ratios "stabilizing" means de-escalation is coming. It probably means the opposite — both sides have converged on a tolerable attrition rate, which is the condition under which long wars continue indefinitely.
Outro
Next Sunday: how the Saudi-Iran diplomatic reopening reads from Riyadh's side, not Tehran's. Thanks for reading.
— Abhi