Iranian conflict.
Critical · 100/100Waractive7,379 dispatches indexedlatest event May 12, 2026
Escalation
100
·Critical · /100
Events · 24h
1
▼-113 vs 7d avg
Fatalities · 7d
5,296
▼-11,632 vs prior 7d
Media divergence
—
·Divergence
Primary belligerent
Iran
Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
17,166
total events across belligerents · 92 daily data points
Annotated milestones
1 of 4
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
532,139
single-side data only
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week14 weeks
Market signal · Brent Crude
105.74
▲ 4.41% / 7dUSD
Strait of Hormuz chokepoint risk
Other watched market signals · 3 additional
USD/IRRUSDIRR
Iranian rial under sanctions pressure
GoldGC=F
Safe-haven demand on escalation
WTI CrudeCL=F
Global oil benchmark impact
No daily brief has been generated for this conflict yet. Briefs are produced for the highest-activity conflicts first; this one becomes eligible as coverage volume climbs.
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
Top 10
Strategic transfers
Arms, tech, and equipment flows where seller or buyer is a belligerent
Top 10
Critical resource flows
Oil, lithium, semiconductors, rare-earth, and other strategic commodities
Critical resource exposure · pipeline pending
Critical-resource exposure tracking (oil, lithium, semiconductors, rare-earth, graphite) is being wired into the per-conflict view. Sign up for the API beta to be notified when the dataset is live.
Threat board
Linked Bayesian threats
Probability-tracked threats tied to Iran · 2 active
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology
This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 0 dispatches across 0 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.
Event volume and casualty counts key off IR as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.