GeoMemo
MON, JUN 29 · EDT
Brief›Conflicts

Rohingya conflict.

Critical · 100/100Civil Warfrozen379 dispatches indexedlatest event Jun 20, 2026
Escalation
100
·Critical · /100
Events · 24h
4
▼-2 vs 7d avg
Fatalities · 7d
20
▲+19 vs prior 7d
Media divergence
—
·Divergence
Myanmar Military & Government
Myanmar
Bangladesh & Rohingya
Bangladesh
Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
1,327
total events across belligerents · 89 daily data points
Annotated milestones
3 of 4
EARTHQUAKECYCLONE NARGISEARTHQUAKE2026-03-312026-05-142026-06-29
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
4,602
1,621 Myanmar Military & Government · 2,981 Bangladesh & Rohingya
Myanmar Military & GovernmentBangladesh & Rohingya
2026-03-302026-06-292,028
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week14 weeks
No daily brief has been generated for this conflict yet. Briefs are produced for the highest-activity conflicts first; this one becomes eligible as coverage volume climbs.
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
SeverityDateEventCountries
10.0Jun 23Myanmar 7.9 quakeMM
10.0Jun 4Cyclone NargisMM
9.0Jun 23Myanmar Air StrikesMM
9.0Jun 20Myanmar ConflictMM
9.0Jun 20Myanmar Civil WarMM
9.0Jun 172021 Military Coup in BurmaMM
9.0Jun 16Displacement in Kayah StateMM
9.0Jun 13Myanmar Civil WarMM
9.0Jun 9Myanmar junta warMM
9.0Jun 4Myanmar Military CoupMM
Top 10 shownFull dataset available via API · contact for access
Top 10
Strategic transfers
Arms, tech, and equipment flows where seller or buyer is a belligerent
DateFlowEquipmentTypeStatus
Apr 17IN→BDdiesel· qty 25000arms saledelivered
Apr 17KR→BDdiesel· qty 68000arms saledelivered
Apr 17MY→BDoctane· qty 27000arms saledelivered
Apr 8RU→MMmunitionsarms saledelivered
Apr 8RU→MMmunitionsarms saledelivered
Apr 8RU→MMmunitionsarms saledelivered
Apr 4IN→MMnaval_vesselarms saledelivered
Apr 4IN→MMnaval_vesselarms saledelivered
Apr 4IN→MMnaval_vesselarms saledelivered
Mar 27RU→MMmissilearms saledelivered
Top 10 shownFull dataset available via API · contact for access
Top 10
Critical resource flows
Oil, lithium, semiconductors, rare-earth, and other strategic commodities
MineralCountryStageReservesGlobal %
critical mineralsMyanmarmining——
Dysprosium· ChipwiMyanmarmining——
Dysprosium· Chipwi-PangwaMyanmarmining——
Dysprosium· Kachin StateMyanmarmining——
Dysprosium· Kachin State ion-adsorption clay depositsMyanmarmining——
Heavy Rare Earth ElementsMyanmarmining——
Heavy Rare EarthsMyanmarmining——
LithiumMyanmarmining——
Rare earth elements· Shan StateMyanmarmining——
Rare earth minerals· Myanmar northMyanmarmining——
Top 10 shown · global share % = country’s share of worldwide production at this stageFull dataset via API · contact
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology

This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 0 dispatches across 0 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.

Event volume and casualty counts key off BD as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.