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FRI, MAY 15 · EDT
Brief›Conflicts

Rohingya conflict.

Critical · 100/100Civil Waractive35 dispatches indexedlatest event Apr 27, 2026
Escalation
100
·Critical · /100
Events · 24h
1
▼-4 vs 7d avg
Fatalities · 7d
22
▼-228 vs prior 7d
Media divergence
—
·Divergence
Myanmar Military & Government
Myanmar
Bangladesh & Rohingya
Bangladesh
Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
519
total events across belligerents · 82 daily data points
Annotated milestones
2 of 4
WAR CRIMEBANGLADESH CAP2026-02-142026-04-042026-05-15
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
2,113
single-side data only
2026-02-092026-05-111,073
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week14 weeks
No daily brief has been generated for this conflict yet. Briefs are produced for the highest-activity conflicts first; this one becomes eligible as coverage volume climbs.
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
SeverityDateEventCountries
9.0May 6Bangladesh Capital AdequacyBD
9.0Apr 23Measles Public Health Emergency in BangladeshBD
9.0Apr 19Boat Capsized in Andaman SeaBD
9.0Apr 192011 Coastal Flooding in BangladeshBD
9.0Apr 18Rohingya boat capsizesBD
9.0Apr 18Rohingya Refugee CrisisBD
9.0Apr 18Malaysia-bound boat capsizesBD
9.0Apr 17Rohingya boat capsizesBD
9.0Apr 17Boat capsizes in Andaman SeaBD
9.0Apr 17Boat capsized in Andaman SeaBD
Top 10 shownFull dataset available via API · contact for access
Top 10
Strategic transfers
Arms, tech, and equipment flows where seller or buyer is a belligerent
DateFlowEquipmentTypeStatus
Apr 17MY→BDoctane· qty 27000arms saledelivered
Apr 17IN→BDdiesel· qty 25000arms saledelivered
Apr 17KR→BDdiesel· qty 68000arms saledelivered
Jan 9PK→BDJF-17arms salecontracted
Apr 11RU→BDRussian oilarms salecontracted
SG→BDjet fuel· qty 11000arms saledelivered
GB→BDcyber_systemtrainingproposed
GB→BDcyber_systemtrainingproposed
Top 8 shownFull dataset available via API · contact for access
Top 10
Critical resource flows
Oil, lithium, semiconductors, rare-earth, and other strategic commodities
Critical resource exposure · pipeline pending
Critical-resource exposure tracking (oil, lithium, semiconductors, rare-earth, graphite) is being wired into the per-conflict view. Sign up for the API beta to be notified when the dataset is live.
Contact for API access
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology

This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 0 dispatches across 0 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.

Event volume and casualty counts key off BD as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.