Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
44,503
total events across belligerents · 92 daily data points
Annotated milestones
1 of 4
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
4,623
3,983 Nigerian Government · 640 External Support (US & South Africa)
Nigerian GovernmentExternal Support (US & South Africa)
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week14 weeks
Bottom Line
We assess with high confidence that the US-Iran conflict has reached a dangerous new escalation cycle, with both sides exchanging direct kinetic strikes on each other's military infrastructure as of Day 94 of the war, and spillover effects now impacting Kuwait — a third-party Gulf state hosting US forces. Nigeria is not the locus of this conflict; the escalation score of 100/100 reflects the US-Iran theater, which carries severe second-order risks for global energy routes and
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
Top 10 shown · global share % = country’s share of worldwide production at this stageFull dataset via API · contact
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology
This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 20 dispatches across 12 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.
Event volume and casualty counts key off NG as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.
