Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
17,429
total events across belligerents · 92 daily data points
Annotated milestones
1 of 4
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
26,397
single-side data only
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week14 weeks
Market signal · Brent crude
—
USD/bbl · live data pending
Bottom Line
We assess with high confidence that the US–Iran conflict has reached a critical inflection point: a sustained US-Israeli naval blockade of Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz is driving oil past $111/barrel, while diplomatic channels remain open but deeply strained. A US decision on resuming direct military operations against Iran may come within days, making the next 72 hours a potential escalation threshold.
Key Developments (last 24–48 hours)
May 1 — Israeli
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
Oil, lithium, semiconductors, rare-earth, and other strategic commodities
Critical resource exposure · pipeline pending
Critical-resource exposure tracking (oil, lithium, semiconductors, rare-earth, graphite) is being wired into the per-conflict view. Sign up for the API beta to be notified when the dataset is live.
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology
This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 20 dispatches across 19 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.
Event volume and casualty counts key off IR as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.
