Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
4,362
total events across belligerents · 87 daily data points
Annotated milestones
2 of 4
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
3,248
single-side data only
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week14 weeks
Market signal · Brent crude
—
USD/bbl · live data pending
Bottom Line
We assess with high confidence that the US–Iran conflict has reached a critical inflection point: a sustained US-Israeli naval blockade of Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz is driving oil past $111/barrel, while diplomatic channels remain open but deeply strained. A US decision on resuming direct military operations against Iran may come within days, making the next 72 hours a potential escalation threshold.
Key Developments (last 24–48 hours)
May 1 — Israeli
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology
This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 20 dispatches across 19 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.
Event volume and casualty counts key off IR as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.
