State of Israel · Jerusalem · 9.4M people · middle-east
Governmentparliamentary democracyLanguagesHebrew (official), Arabic (special status under Israeli law), English (most commonly used foreign language)Area21.9K km²Sanctioned entities136Active conflicts10Mentions 7d67 ▼ 63%CIA· Jan 2026
Stability Score?How the stability score is computedA weighted composite of seven pillars— conflict intensity, event volatility, arms activity, economic health, market stress, sanctions exposure, and humanitarian proxy. Each pillar is scored 0–100 (higher = healthier). The composite is weighted (conflict 25%, economy 20%, events 15%, the rest 10% each) and recomputed daily from strategic events, World Bank indicators, arms-transfer data, and sanctions records.
Intelligence briefGenerated Aug 30, 2026 · CLAUDE-HAIKU-4-5-20251001 · 15 sources
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The other side.See this brief from Israel's frame — local-language sources elevated, Western framing flagged.
BLUF · Bottom Line Up Front
Six-month US-Iran conflict at strategic stalemate; Iran survives militarily while regional economic disruption accelerates.
Six months into sustained US-Israeli military operations against Iran, neither side has achieved stated strategic objectives. Iran's theocratic leadership remains intact, nuclear facilities operational, and Strait of Hormuz control maintained, while US-led sanctions (Operation Economic Outcast) inflict severe domestic economic damage on Iran (87.9% consumer inflation) but have not forced capitulation. Regional spillover effects include 6,000+ stranded sailors, European energy crisis (gas storage at 13-year low), and hardened Iranian leadership posture rejecting ceasefire proposals.
Linked Bayesian threats?Linked threatsBayesian-tracked threats from the system threat board where Israel is involved. Each threat shows its current posterior probability and the 7-day move (in percentage points). Click any card for the full threat detail page.
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Key Judgments
01
Iran's regime demonstrates strategic resilience despite severe economic pressure and military attrition.
Multiple credible sources confirm Iran restored 40% of damaged South Pars gas capacity post-strikes, maintains Strait of Hormuz control (evidenced by 6,000+ stranded vessels and 82 US-redirected commercial ships), and preserved nuclear facility integrity. Iranian leadership consolidated control by appointing hard-line figures and emphasizing national unity rhetoric. However, 87.9% consumer price inflation and simultaneous fiscal/monetary crises indicate unsustainable economic trajectory without sanctions relief.
high confidence5 sourcesEN · FA
02
US-Israel strategic campaign objectives unrealized; Trump administration shifting from military to economic pressure doctrine.
US-Israeli forces failed to achieve regime change or force Iranian capitulation despite six-month campaign. Trump publicly claims 'no hurry to end Iran war' and stated sanctions are 'working,' signaling pivot toward protracted economic warfare rather than military victory. Independent analyst assessment indicates 'strategic goals failed miserably' with Tehran maintaining operational capacity and regional leverage. This strategic reorientation suggests recognition of military stalemate.
high confidence4 sourcesEN
03
Iranian leadership demands unconditional US withdrawal from region as precondition for negotiation; limited diplomatic off-ramps visible.
Iranian officials (Rezaei, Araghchi, Khamenei) issued coordinated messaging that US must end wars in Lebanon and Gaza, honor June memorandum commitments, and cease 'economic warfare' before dialogue resumes. President Pezeshkian's concurrent appeals to Trump for dialogue appear tactical positioning rather than genuine negotiating stance given accompanying maximalist demands. Hezbollah's rejection of Israel-Lebanon ceasefire deal reinforces Iranian axis hardline posture.
high confidence6 sourcesEN · FA
04
Regional economic disruption (energy crisis, maritime bottleneck) creating pressure on US coalition partners and potential sanctions-lifting constituencies.
European gas storage at 13-year low (63% capacity) with prices spiking above €68/MWh due to Middle East supply disruptions. Six thousand+ stranded sailors and commercial vessel diversions indicate maritime commerce disruption. UK investigation revealed 2.1 billion pounds in public-sector contracts with Israeli settlement-linked companies, generating 140 Labour MPs' trade-ban pressure. These factors may create internal coalition pressure for negotiated resolution.
moderate confidence4 sourcesEN
05
Third-party regional realignment underway; Kuwait-Pakistan military partnership expansion and Greece's 3.1 billion euro Israeli air defense procurement signal coalition consolidation.
Kuwait-Pakistan Protocol Agreement-2026 expands defense partnership amid wider regional reconfiguration. Greece's Monday signing of four contracts for Israeli air defense systems (David's Sling, SPYDER-AiO, BARAK-MX) worth 3.1 billion euros indicates NATO/allied reinforcement of Israeli capabilities. Single source references 'secret pact challenging US dominance,' suggesting ongoing geopolitical repositioning.
moderate confidence▼ since yesterday3 sourcesEN
Watchlist · next 48 hours
01
Iranian economic collapse trigger or sudden sanctions relief announcement.
Indicator · Central Bank currency intervention failure; Iranian rial exchange rate exceeding 500,000:1 USD parity OR announcement of JCPOA renegotiation or sanctions suspension by US administration.
35%
02
Hezbollah or Iranian proxy escalation response to ongoing Israel operations in Lebanon.
Indicator · Coordinated missile/drone strikes on Israeli or US facilities; Strait of Hormuz blockade action; significant casualty events affecting coalition forces or Israeli civilians.
42%▲ 2pp
03
Formal US-Iran ceasefire or negotiation framework announcement.
Indicator · Joint statement from US-Iran envoys; multilateral mediation engagement by Qatar/Oman; public Trump statements indicating willingness to meet Iranian preconditions on Lebanon/Gaza.
28%▼ 17pp
04
European energy crisis escalation forcing NATO policy shift toward Middle East de-escalation.
Indicator · Gas prices exceeding €75/MWh; announcement of energy emergency measures by EU; direct EU mediation proposals for Iran sanctions relief.
31%▲ 6pp
+How we produced this brief
Generated under ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft standards by CLAUDE-HAIKU-4-5-20251001. Evidence pack drawn from 37 dispatches over the trailing 48 hours, plus structured intelligence-event rows, extracted quantities, and threat-evidence records.
Local-language reporting is incorporated where available (FA, EN), with explicit divergence flagging where local and Western framing diverge. Every claim ships with a calibrated confidence statement.
Event timelineLast 7 days · 12 milestones · hover for context
AUG 29
2026
Israeli Drone Strike
drone_strike · severity 5
Moderate
AUG 27
2026
US-Israel War
conflict_escalation · severity 9
Critical
AUG 27
2026
Mladenov Meets Netanyahu
diplomatic_visit · severity 4
Moderate
AUG 26
2026
UN Criticizes Israel
diplomatic_tension · severity 5
Moderate
AUG 26
2026
US Warns Hamas
diplomatic_tension · severity 6
Elevated
AUG 26
2026
UN Condemns Israel
diplomatic_tension · severity 5
Moderate
AUG 26
2026
Israel Threatens Gaza
conflict_escalation · severity 6
Elevated
AUG 26
2026
Netanyahu strikes Gaza
airstrike · severity 8
Critical
AUG 26
2026
Gaza Violence Continues
conflict_escalation · severity 7
Elevated
AUG 26
2026
Settlement Expansion
conflict_escalation · severity 7
Elevated
Stability components7-pillar breakdown · each 0–100, higher = healthier · 30-day trend per pillar
arms imports: 509total value usd: $1369.79Bconflict amplified: yes
Economic Health
79/100 · 20% wt
gdp growth pct: 0.95%inflation pct: 3.07%unemployment pct: 3.60%
Market Stress
77/100 · 10% wt
total signals 30d: 117negative signals 30d: 27
Sanctions Exposure
73/100 · 10% wt
sanctioned entities: 136is sanctioning power: no
Humanitarian Proxy
96/100 · 10% wt
life expectancy: 83.2literacy rate: —
Risk matrix5 enterprise-decision dimensions · derived from the 7 stability pillars · higher = more risk
Political
4Stable
Security
76Critical
Economic
22Stable
Regulatory
27Moderate
Operational
50Moderate
Risk dimensions are derived from the 7 stability pillars. Higher score = more risk (inverted from the stability score, where higher = healthier). Operational is a weighted composite intended for enterprise-decision use.
Latest dispatches10 in country corpus · sources come online as coverage grows
Defense & Arms Transfers
یونان قرار است یک قرارداد نظامی ۳.۶ میلیارد دلاری با اسرائیل امضا کند / این قرارداد مهم، یک سامانه پدافند هوایی چندلایه در اختیار آتن قرار خواهد داد تا در برابر تهدیدهای احتمالی از سوی ترکیه و ایران از این کشور دفاع کند / این توافق به بزرگترین قرارداد صادرات دفاعی تاریخ اسرائیل تبدیل خواهد شد
Greece will sign a 3.6 billion dollar military defense contract with Israel on Monday, acquiring multilayered air defense systems to counter potential threats from Turkey and Iran, marking Israel's largest defense export deal in history.
EntekhabGreece · Israel · Iran
Geopolitical Conflict
Ο γιος του Νετανιάχου επέστρεψε εσπευσμένα στο Ισραήλ από τις ΗΠΑ – Κινδύνευε η ζωή του
Efimerida Syntakton
International Relations
Νετανιάχου κατά ΕΕ: «Σιωπά για την τουρκική κατοχή στην Κύπρο, αλλά εξοργίζεται με το Ισραήλ» – Η ανάρτησή του
Ta Nea
Geopolitical Conflict
Iran’s unity led to defeat of US and Israel in three wars: Hezbollah chief
Tehran Times
Geopolitical Politics
Leader: US, Israel 'sworn enemies' of Muslim unity and friendship
Tehran Times
40th Islamic Unity Conference wraps up in Mashhad with calls for regional resistance and solidarity
Tehran Times
Iranian officials rally behind Leader's directive for unity and resistance
Tehran Times
Master Marc Lynch and the decline of empire
Tehran Times
Settler rampages, military raids accelerate across West Bank
Tehran Times
The new Syria: From terror lists to Israeli intimidation
Tehran Times
Think tanks · this country20 articles from research institutions tracking Israel
This profile draws from four data tiers. Baseline facts (geography, languages, religion) are from the CIA World Factbook snapshot of January 2026 — the final snapshot before the website was retired. Economic indicators refresh daily from the World Bank. Events, conflicts, dispatches, and entity mentions flow continuously from our continuous intelligence graph — sources come online as we add them. Intelligence briefs are generated daily under ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft standards.
Coverage of Israel will sharpen as we add local-language sources. Every field above carries a provenance chip so you can judge freshness for yourself.
