Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
24
total events across belligerents · 20 daily data points
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
0
single-side data only
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week14 weeks
Bottom Line
We assess with low confidence that the Mozambique insurgency remains at an elevated escalation level (scored 100/100 as of 21 April 2026), but the current evidence pack contains no direct reporting on the conflict in Cabo Delgado or broader Mozambique. The absence of fresh sourcing prevents meaningful analytic update; policymakers should treat this brief as a data-gap flag rather than a substantive assessment.
Key Developments (last 24–48 hours)
Apr 28 — The DR
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
Top 10 shown · global share % = country’s share of worldwide production at this stageFull dataset via API · contact
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology
This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 6 dispatches across 6 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.
Event volume and casualty counts key off RW as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.
