Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
557
total events across belligerents · 86 daily data points
Annotated milestones
2 of 4
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
426
single-side data only
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week13 weeks
Bottom Line
We assess with moderate confidence that the US-Iran war has entered a fragile de-escalation phase following the "Islamabad Understanding" memorandum of understanding announced June 13–15, but the Strait of Hormuz crisis is far from resolved — full restoration of oil and gas flows will likely take weeks to months, and significant divergences between Iranian and Western interpretations of the deal's terms create substantial risk of renewed escalation.
Key Developments (last
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
Top 1 shown · global share % = country’s share of worldwide production at this stageFull dataset via API · contact
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology
This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 20 dispatches across 19 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.
Event volume and casualty counts key off IQ as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.
