Geopolitical Economics
Oil ends flat as tanker crossings through Strait of Hormuz temper supply fears, Asia News
Oil prices ended flat due to tanker crossings through the Strait of Hormuz.
AsiaOneIran · United States · China
Daily briefOperational risk · 90d →
Iraq.
Republic of Iraq · Baghdad · 42.9M people · middle-east
Governmentfederal parliamentary republicLanguagesArabic (official), Kurdish (official); Turkmen (a Turkish dialect) and Syriac (Neo-Aramaic) are recognized as official languages where native speakers of these languages are presentArea438.3K km²Sanctioned entities548Active conflicts10Mentions 7d44 ▲ 33%CIA· Jan 2026
Stability Score?How the stability score is computedA weighted composite of seven pillars— conflict intensity, event volatility, arms activity, economic health, market stress, sanctions exposure, and humanitarian proxy. Each pillar is scored 0–100 (higher = healthier). The composite is weighted (conflict 25%, economy 20%, events 15%, the rest 10% each) and recomputed daily from strategic events, World Bank indicators, arms-transfer data, and sanctions records.
Risk tier: Critical < 25 · High 25–50 · Elevated 50–75 · Stable≥ 75.
Risk tier: Critical < 25 · High 25–50 · Elevated 50–75 · Stable≥ 75.
45.0
Critical risk
27-day trend
Intelligence briefGenerated May 11, 2026 · CLAUDE-HAIKU-4-5-20251001 · 15 sources
The other side. See this brief from Iraq's frame — local-language sources elevated, Western framing flagged.
BLUF · Bottom Line Up Front
Iraq's crude exports collapse 53% amid Strait of Hormuz crisis; dark shipping tactics emerging as survival strategy.
Iraqi oil tankers are transiting the Strait of Hormuz with disabled transponders and coordinating with Iranian authorities to maintain crude exports amid US-Iran escalation. Iraq's crude exports have declined 53% due to security concerns and vessel movement difficulties. Multiple Iraqi tankers are employing evasion tactics alongside legitimate coordination efforts, indicating Baghdad is pursuing parallel strategies to sustain critical oil revenues during regional conflict.
Confidence HIGHDivergence LOWSingle-source claims 2
Iraq · 90-day event volume
898
total events · 90 daily data points
Annotated milestones
1 of 12
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Key Judgments
01
Iraqi oil sector faces existential revenue crisis from Strait of Hormuz disruptions and 53% export decline.
Iraq's crude exports have plummeted 53% according to multiple sources (Shafaq News, Iraqi News, Discovery Alert), driven by ongoing Strait of Hormuz security threats and US-Iran military escalation. OPEC revenues collectively fell to $619 billion in 2025 from $651 billion in 2024 across three consecutive years of decline (NourNews). For Iraq-an OPEC member dependent on oil revenues-this sustained export collapse poses acute fiscal and security challenges to state stability and military operations.
high confidence5 sourcesEN · AR
02
Iraqi tankers employing dark shipping and Iran coordination to bypass US-Iran blockade.
Multiple Iraqi-owned and Greek-owned tankers carrying Iraqi crude have transited the Strait of Hormuz with disabled tracking systems (OilPrice.com, Greek City Times, Latest news from Azerbaijan, India Today, BusinessLine). Simultaneously, Iranian media reported Iraqi supertankers passing through using Iran's designated routes and coordinating with Iranian authorities (Rudaw, Shafaq News). This dual-track approach-both evasion and coordination-suggests Baghdad is hedging by working within Iranian-controlled corridors while maintaining plausible deniability through transponder disabling.
high confidence7 sourcesEN · AR
03
US-Iran naval conflict directly threatens Iraqi maritime commerce and energy exports.
US forces disabled two Iranian tankers on May 8, 2026 during Strait of Hormuz blockade operations (Discovery Alert), while Iran maintains military capability to threaten shipping. Hundreds of tankers have anchored in Middle East Gulf waters avoiding transit (EnergyNow, May 9). For Iraq, this US-Iran direct confrontation creates asymmetric risks: Iraqi tankers must navigate both Iranian threats and US interdiction operations, forcing reliance on Iranian coordination for safe passage through Iran-controlled waters.
high confidence4 sourcesEN
04
Failed US Project Freedom indicates limited US ability to guarantee Hormuz navigation security.
The U.S. suspended Project Freedom after one day, unable to secure Strait of Hormuz free navigation as Iran demonstrated escalation capabilities and shipping companies remained deterred (The Hindu, May 9). This failure undermines Iraqi confidence in US security guarantees and reinforces Baghdad's need to develop independent relationships with regional actors, particularly Iran, to maintain oil export corridors.
moderate confidence1 sourceEN
05
Global oil market surprisingly resilient despite 10% export cutoff; Iraqi tankers face disproportionate risk.
Despite 10 percent of global oil exports being cut off, Brent crude remained restrained at $101/barrel (The National, May 11), and global markets have absorbed the disruption through dark shipping tactics and emergency supplies. However, this market stability masks Iraq's acute vulnerability: Iraqi tankers are bearing disproportionate operational risk through transponder disabling and Iranian waters transit, while alternative exporters (UAE, Saudi Arabia) employ similar evasion tactics with less political exposure.
moderate confidence3 sourcesEN
Watchlist · next 48 hours
01
Iraqi tanker interdiction or seizure by US or Iran forces.
Indicator · Reports of Iraqi-flagged or Greek-owned tanker carrying Iraqi oil being disabled, seized, or damaged by military action; port facility closures; insurance claims filed for Iraqi vessels.
45%▼ 20pp
02
Formalization of Iraqi-Iranian oil corridor coordination versus continued dark shipping evasion.
Indicator · Official Iraqi government statement on Strait of Hormuz transit arrangements; Iranian media reports of coordinated Iraqi vessel passages; shift in transponder-disabled transit frequency; Baghdad-Tehran bilateral oil commerce agreements announced.
65%▼ 7pp
03
Further deterioration of Iraqi crude export volumes or disruption to alternative export routes.
Indicator · Additional export decline beyond current 53%; reports of Iraqi tanker rejections at foreign ports; activation of pipeline exports to alternate terminals; emergency OPEC production cuts announced by Iraq.
55%▼ 3pp
04
US diplomatic pressure on Iraq to distance from Iranian-coordinated shipping or sanctions consequences.
Indicator · US State Department statements targeting Iraqi entities; sanctions threats against Iraqi oil companies; US military interdiction of Iraqi tankers; bilateral US-Iraq meetings on Hormuz policy shifts.
50%▼ 18pp
+How we produced this brief
Generated under ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft standards by CLAUDE-HAIKU-4-5-20251001. Evidence pack drawn from 43 dispatches over the trailing 48 hours, plus structured intelligence-event rows, extracted quantities, and threat-evidence records.
Local-language reporting is incorporated where available (EN), with explicit divergence flagging where local and Western framing diverge. Every claim ships with a calibrated confidence statement.
Event timelineLast 7 days · 12 milestones · hover for context
MAY 15
2026
IRGC Bombs Mossad Base
airstrike · severity 8
Critical
MAY 14
2026
US airstrike kills Soleimani
airstrike · severity 8
Critical
MAY 14
2026
Soleimani's Death
drone_strike · severity 9
Critical
MAY 14
2026
Kurdistan aids Syrian refugees
humanitarian_aid · severity 4
Moderate
MAY 14
2026
Iraq Seeks IMF Aid
economic_indicator · severity 6
Elevated
MAY 14
2026
Iraq-Iran Deal
diplomatic_visit · severity 4
Moderate
MAY 14
2026
Iraq Violence
conflict_escalation · severity 7
Elevated
MAY 13
2026
Iraq Economic Pressure
diplomatic_tension · severity 6
Elevated
MAY 13
2026
Iraq Migration
refugee_flow · severity 6
Elevated
MAY 13
2026
Kurdistan Climate
drought · severity 5
Moderate
Stability components7-pillar breakdown · each 0–100, higher = healthier · 30-day trend per pillar
Conflict Intensity
0/100 · 25% wt
target conflicts: 9domestic conflicts: 2max escalation score: 100
Event Volatility
79/100 · 15% wt
target events: 117actor only events: 26domestic events: 2severe domestic: 3instability rate: 4.50%article coverage 90d: 2,865
Arms Activity
80/100 · 10% wt
arms imports: 6total value usd: $92.7Mconflict amplified: yes
Economic Health
64/100 · 20% wt
gdp growth pct: -1.55%inflation pct: -12.30%unemployment pct: 15.29%
Market Stress
48/100 · 10% wt
total signals 30d: 216negative signals 30d: 112
Sanctions Exposure
0/100 · 10% wt
sanctioned entities: 548is sanctioning power: no
Humanitarian Proxy
76/100 · 10% wt
life expectancy: 72.4literacy rate: 84.10%
Risk matrix5 enterprise-decision dimensions · derived from the 7 stability pillars · higher = more risk
Political24Stable
Security60Elevated
Economic42Moderate
Regulatory100Critical
Operational71Elevated
Risk dimensions are derived from the 7 stability pillars. Higher score = more risk (inverted from the stability score, where higher = healthier). Operational is a weighted composite intended for enterprise-decision use.
Peer comparisonSame-region countries by stability score · this country highlighted
Peer comparison · Middle East
Rank 6 of 19
0132.7
0234.7
0335.5
0440.2
0543.9
0644.8
0753.0
0855.8
EconomyWorld Bank · 10-year series · 18 indicators
GDP (current USD)
WB· 2024$279.6B
▲ $10.8B YoY
GDP per capita
WB· 2024$6.1K
▲ $108 YoY
Inflation (CPI)
WB· 2024-12.3%
▼ 16.7% YoY
Unemployment
WB· 202415.3%
▲ 0.1% YoY
Population
WB· 202446.0M
▲ 968.0K YoY
Military spend %GDP
WB· 20242.36%
▲ 0.09% YoY
Life expectancy
WB· 202472.4 yrs
▲ 0.1 yrs YoY
Internet users %
WB· 202481.5%
▼ 0.3% YoY
Security12 recent events · 10 conflicts · 6 transfers
Event volume · 90 days
898
Casualties (killed) · 90 days
1028
High-severity events
2026-05-15
IRGC Bombs Mossad Base
Airstrike4 killed
2026-05-14
US airstrike kills Soleimani
Airstrike1 killed
2026-05-14
Soleimani's Death
Drone Strike1 killed
2026-05-14
Kurdistan aids Syrian refugees
Humanitarian Aid
2026-05-14
Iraq Seeks IMF Aid
Economic Indicator
2026-05-14
Iraq-Iran Deal
Diplomatic Visit
2026-05-14
Iraq Violence
Conflict Escalation
2026-05-13
Iraq Economic Pressure
Diplomatic Tension
Active conflicts involving Iraq
Iran war
Civil War · 255758 dispatches
Critical · 100
Persian Gulf conflict
Maritime · 61190 dispatches
Critical · 100
Middle East conflict
War · 42367 dispatches
Critical · 100
West Asia conflict
Civil War · 27634 dispatches
Critical · 100
Latest dispatches10 in country corpus · sources come online as coverage grows
Geopolitical Economics
Crude Oil Slightly Rises as Iran Allows Safe Passage for Ships |
Business Post Nigeria
Geopolitical Conflict
Israel Bombs Damascus Outskirts Injuring 2 Syrian Soldiers
Syria News
Geopolitical Conflict
Israel and the USA Bomb Syrian Sites in Al-Bukamal and Aleppo
Syria News
Geopolitical Conflict
Losing in Gaza, Israel Bombs Damascus, Al Qaeda Bombs Aleppo
Syria News
Israel Commits A Deadly Mistake Assassinating Saleh Al-Arouri
Syria News
Erdogan’s Family is against “Israel”; their Father’s State is with it!
Syria News
The Pentagon Unleashes ISIS in Syria, Ambushes and Massacres
Syria News
ISIS Attack Kills and Injures 21 Syrian Soldiers, SAA Retaliates
Syria News
IRGC Bombs Israel’s Spy Base in Kurdistan Iraq, ISIS Dens in Idlib
Syria News
Think tanks · this country17 articles from research institutions tracking Iraq
Issues. Ideas. Impact.
Beyond OPEC: The Geopolitical Earthquake Reshaping the Middle East and Its Neighbors
May 15, 2026
Middle East Institute
What Does the UAE’s Departure Mean for OPEC+?
May 8, 2026
Stimson Center
Iran-Aligned Militias Jeopardize Iraq’s Gulf Reset
May 6, 2026
Hudson Institute
Is There a China Strategy Behind the Iran War?
May 6, 2026
Hudson Institute
Is There a China Strategy Behind the Iran War?
May 5, 2026
Stimson Center
Iran’s Uncertain Transition: From the Streets to a Strongman
May 4, 2026
Atlantic Council
Breaking with OPEC, the UAE is now a free agent. What this means for markets and regional unity
Apr 30, 2026
Middle East Institute
Why Iran’s Oil Pain Does Not Guarantee Capitulation
Apr 29, 2026
CSIS | Center for Strategic and International Studies
How to Interpret Wartime Oil Prices
Apr 24, 2026
Top entitiesMost-mentioned actors in Iraq-tagged articles · last 30 days
Forward calendar · relatedUpcoming scheduled events · co-mentioned countries · conflicts · recent reports
Related
Co-mentioned countries · 30d
+Methodology · how this profile is built
This profile draws from four data tiers. Baseline facts (geography, languages, religion) are from the CIA World Factbook snapshot of January 2026 — the final snapshot before the website was retired. Economic indicators refresh daily from the World Bank. Events, conflicts, dispatches, and entity mentions flow continuously from our continuous intelligence graph — sources come online as we add them. Intelligence briefs are generated daily under ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft standards.
Coverage of Iraq will sharpen as we add local-language sources. Every field above carries a provenance chip so you can judge freshness for yourself.