Republic of Iraq · Baghdad · 42.9M people · middle-east
Governmentfederal parliamentary republicLanguagesArabic (official), Kurdish (official); Turkmen (a Turkish dialect) and Syriac (Neo-Aramaic) are recognized as official languages where native speakers of these languages are presentArea438.3K km²Sanctioned entities560Active conflicts10Mentions 7d13 ▼ 41%CIA· Jan 2026
Stability Score?How the stability score is computedA weighted composite of seven pillars— conflict intensity, event volatility, arms activity, economic health, market stress, sanctions exposure, and humanitarian proxy. Each pillar is scored 0–100 (higher = healthier). The composite is weighted (conflict 25%, economy 20%, events 15%, the rest 10% each) and recomputed daily from strategic events, World Bank indicators, arms-transfer data, and sanctions records.
Intelligence briefGenerated Jun 29, 2026 · CLAUDE-HAIKU-4-5-20251001 · 11 sources
⇄
The other side.See this brief from Iraq's frame — local-language sources elevated, Western framing flagged.
BLUF · Bottom Line Up Front
Iraq navigates competing pressures as PM pursues US partnership while Iran solidifies regional influence.
Iraqi PM Al-Zaidi's anti-corruption campaign (47 arrests including MPs) and planned US visit signal intent to rebalance Iraq's foreign partnerships toward economic cooperation over military ties. Simultaneously, Iranian FM Araghchi's Baghdad visit emphasizes bilateral cooperation and Iran's unilateral control of the Strait of Hormuz, testing Iraq's balancing act between Washington and Tehran amid fragile US-Iran ceasefire.
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Key Judgments
01
Iraq's new PM pursuing strategic reorientation from military to economic US engagement while managing Iranian pressure.
PM Al-Zaidi's anti-corruption arrests targeting parliament members (47 officials) and announcement to transition US partnership from military to economic focus (energy projects) indicates structural policy shift ahead of Washington visit. However, simultaneous reaffirmation of 'good-neighborly relations' with Iran during FM Araghchi's Baghdad visit suggests Iraq seeks balanced positioning rather than alignment shift. Sources: Tehran Times (2026-06-27), The Hindu (2026-06-28), diplomatic event severity 5 (2026-06-28).
high confidence3 sourcesEN · AR
02
Iran consolidating regional control narrative during fragile US ceasefire by asserting 30-day Strait of Hormuz management authority.
Iranian FM Araghchi's repeated warnings against 'new rules' in Strait of Hormuz and assertion of unilateral Iranian control for 30 days (Al Jazeera, Mehr News Agency, Tehran Times all 2026-06-28) occur during Baghdad visit, signaling intent to operationalize maritime control claims. This messaging targets Iraq as audience and potential partner, while US-Iran ceasefire agreement remains fragile (resumed talks scheduled for Qatar, The Independent 2026-06-29).
high confidence▲ since yesterday4 sourcesEN · AR · FA
03
Iraq's oil production quota restoration proceeds amid regional instability, presenting economic opportunity and vulnerability.
OPEC and Iraq initiating gradual restoration of production quotas (Egypt Oil & Gas 2026-06-28) aims to boost capacity and reflect Iraq's economic needs. However, this expansion occurs within context of regional construction sector disruption and infrastructure damage from recent Middle East conflict (MSN 2026-06-28), creating execution risk and dependence on regional stability maintenance.
moderate confidence2 sourcesEN
04
Iran's $270B three-month conflict losses with US drive intensive diplomatic outreach to Iraq, seeking economic cooperation alternatives.
Tuoi Tre (2026-06-27) reports Iran sustained $270B economic damage over three months of US-Israeli conflict, equivalent to eight years of Iraq-Iran War damage. This severe economic shock correlates with Iranian proposals for healthcare services exports and bilateral investment cooperation with Iraq, indicating Tehran leveraging diplomatic channels to diversify economic partnerships and offset war losses.
moderate confidence▲ since yesterday2 sourcesEN
Watchlist · next 48 hours
01
Outcome of PM Al-Zaidi's Washington visit and specificity of US-Iraq economic partnership commitments versus military cooperation reductions.
Indicator · Public statements from both governments confirming energy sector investment agreements, arms reduction timelines, or joint economic councils; Iraqi parliament ratification of any new bilateral frameworks.
75%▲ 3pp
02
Implementation of Iranian 30-day Strait of Hormuz control assertion and US response to Iranian unilateral maritime management claims.
Indicator · Evidence of Iranian maritime enforcement actions, US naval repositioning, shipping incident reports, or diplomatic démarches from Gulf states challenging Iranian authority claims.
68%
03
Iraqi government actions against pro-Iran armed groups following anti-corruption campaign, signaling commitment to PM's rebalancing agenda.
Indicator · Arrests or sanctions targeting militia leaders, disbandment announcements, or US-Iraq joint statements on countering non-state armed actors; Iranian or militia response statements.
62%▼ 2pp
04
Progress on US-Iran Qatar peace talks resumption (scheduled 2026-06-30 per The Independent) and spillover implications for Iraq's strategic positioning.
Indicator · Confirmed talks convening, substantive agreement announcements, or breakdown statements; Iraqi government mediation role announcements; regional reactions from Saudi Arabia, UAE, or Gulf states.
71%▲ 13pp
+How we produced this brief
Generated under ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft standards by CLAUDE-HAIKU-4-5-20251001. Evidence pack drawn from 20 dispatches over the trailing 48 hours, plus structured intelligence-event rows, extracted quantities, and threat-evidence records.
Local-language reporting is incorporated where available (EN, VI), with explicit divergence flagging where local and Western framing diverge. Every claim ships with a calibrated confidence statement.
Event timelineLast 7 days · 9 milestones · hover for context
JUN 28
2026
Iraq Oil Production
economic_indicator · severity 4
Moderate
JUN 28
2026
Iranian Delegation Visits Iraq
diplomatic_visit · severity 2
Moderate
JUN 28
2026
Iran FM visits Iraq
diplomatic_visit · severity 4
Moderate
JUN 27
2026
US-Iran Talks
diplomatic_tension · severity 3
Moderate
JUN 27
2026
Iraqi Premier Talks
diplomatic_visit · severity 2
Moderate
JUN 26
2026
Iraq-OPEC Tension
diplomatic_tension · severity 6
Elevated
JUN 26
2026
Iraq Economic Pressure
economic_indicator · severity 7
Elevated
JUN 26
2026
Iraq denies OPEC exit talks
diplomatic_tension · severity 2
Moderate
JUN 25
2026
Iraq-OPEC Tension
diplomatic_tension · severity 4
Moderate
Stability components7-pillar breakdown · each 0–100, higher = healthier · 30-day trend per pillar
arms imports: 10total value usd: $2.89Bconflict amplified: yes
Economic Health
64/100 · 20% wt
gdp growth pct: -1.55%inflation pct: -12.30%unemployment pct: 15.29%
Market Stress
50/100 · 10% wt
total signals 30d: 48negative signals 30d: 24
Sanctions Exposure
0/100 · 10% wt
sanctioned entities: 560is sanctioning power: no
Humanitarian Proxy
76/100 · 10% wt
life expectancy: 72.4literacy rate: 84.10%
Risk matrix5 enterprise-decision dimensions · derived from the 7 stability pillars · higher = more risk
Political
24Stable
Security
65Elevated
Economic
42Moderate
Regulatory
100Critical
Operational
72Elevated
Risk dimensions are derived from the 7 stability pillars. Higher score = more risk (inverted from the stability score, where higher = healthier). Operational is a weighted composite intended for enterprise-decision use.
Latest dispatches10 in country corpus · sources come online as coverage grows
Geopolitical Conflict
Middle East conflict hit smaller construction companies hardest, data shows - MSN
Regional conflict disrupted smaller Middle East construction firms more severely than larger competitors, with data revealing disproportionate damage to enterprises lacking resources to weather supply chain disruptions and project delays.
MSNIsrael · Palestine · Iran
Geopolitical Economics
Iran seeks larger share of Muslim health tourism market
Tehran Times
International Relations
Araghchi Arrives in Baghdad for Talks with Iraqi Leaders - WANA News Agency
WANA News Agency
International Relations
Iran’s FM Araghchi meets Iraqi president in Baghdad for talks
Mehr News Agency
Other
لحظه برخورد قطار با خودرو در جنوب عراق + فیلم
Hamshahri Online
Foreign Minister Araghchi meets Iraqi premier to discuss regional stability
IRNA
Iraqi officials, including lawmakers, arrested on corruption charges in overnight raid
Washington Times
Iraqi officials arrested on corruption charges in overnight raid in fortified Green Zone
Egypt Independent
Ukraine says it attacked two Russian oil refineries
Al Jazeera
Iraq arrests senior officials in anti-corruption raids
Al Jazeera
Think tanks · this country18 articles from research institutions tracking Iraq
This profile draws from four data tiers. Baseline facts (geography, languages, religion) are from the CIA World Factbook snapshot of January 2026 — the final snapshot before the website was retired. Economic indicators refresh daily from the World Bank. Events, conflicts, dispatches, and entity mentions flow continuously from our continuous intelligence graph — sources come online as we add them. Intelligence briefs are generated daily under ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft standards.
Coverage of Iraq will sharpen as we add local-language sources. Every field above carries a provenance chip so you can judge freshness for yourself.
