Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
17,588
total events across belligerents · 91 daily data points
Annotated milestones
1 of 4
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
2,188
single-side data only
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week13 weeks
Bottom Line
We assess with high confidence that the US-Iran confrontation over the Strait of Hormuz has reached a critical inflection point following the expiration of the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding on August 17, 2026, with shipping traffic through the strait dropping to zero and no successor agreement in sight. While the conflict's geographic center is the Persian Gulf rather than Europe, cascading economic effects—energy price shocks, airspace disruptions, and central bank de-
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
Neodymium-Praseodymium· White Mesa MillUnited Statesmining—13.0%
Top 10 shown · global share % = country’s share of worldwide production at this stageFull dataset via API · contact
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology
This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 20 dispatches across 17 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.
Event volume and casualty counts key off US as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.
