GeoMemo
WED, MAY 13 · EDT
Brief›Conflicts

Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Critical · 93/100Civil Waractive2,177 dispatches indexedlatest event May 11, 2026
Escalation
93
·Critical · /100
Events · 24h
6
▼-44 vs 7d avg
Fatalities · 7d
20,670
▲+5,626 vs prior 7d
Media divergence
—
·Divergence
Primary belligerent
Israel
Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
4,432
total events across belligerents · 91 daily data points
Annotated milestones
1 of 4
ISRAEL'S RETAL2026-02-112026-03-282026-05-12
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
215,451
single-side data only
2026-02-092026-05-11112,150
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week14 weeks
Market signal · Brent crude
—
USD/bbl · live data pending
No daily brief has been generated for this conflict yet. Briefs are produced for the highest-activity conflicts first; this one becomes eligible as coverage volume climbs.
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
SeverityDateEventCountries
10.0May 12Hamas Attack on IsraelIL
10.0May 11Israel-US War on IranIL
10.0May 11Israel Gaza ConflictIL
10.0May 10Israel's Retaliatory WarIL
10.0May 8Gaza ConflictIL
10.0May 7Israel's AssaultIL
10.0May 6Israel-US War with IranIL
10.0May 6Gaza Aid BlockageIL
10.0May 6Gaza ConflictIL
10.0May 2Israel-Hezbollah ExchangesIL
Top 10 shownFull dataset available via API · contact for access
Top 10
Strategic transfers
Arms, tech, and equipment flows where seller or buyer is a belligerent
DateFlowEquipmentTypeStatus
Apr 17US→ILair-to-air missilesarms salecontracted
Apr 16US→ILmissilearms saleannounced
Apr 16US→ILCaterpillar D-9 bulldozersarms saleproposed
Apr 16→ILmunitionsarms saleannounced
Apr 16IL→TWT-DOM missile defense systemarms salecontracted
Apr 16IT→ILmissilearms saleannounced
Apr 16US→ILD9R and D9T Caterpillar bulldozersarms salecontracted
Apr 16US→ILBLU-110A/B· qty 12000arms salecontracted
Apr 16US→ILbulldozersarms saleproposed
Apr 16IL→ESmissilearms salecancelled
Top 10 shownFull dataset available via API · contact for access
Top 10
Critical resource flows
Oil, lithium, semiconductors, rare-earth, and other strategic commodities
MineralCountryStageReservesGlobal %
LithiumIsraelprocessing——
Top 1 shown · global share % = country’s share of worldwide production at this stageFull dataset via API · contact
Threat board
Linked Bayesian threats
Probability-tracked threats tied to Israel · 1 active
conflict
Middle East regional war expansion
95%▲ 0.7pp
7-day Bayesian update
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology

This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 0 dispatches across 0 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.

Event volume and casualty counts key off IL as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.