Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
847
total events across belligerents · 80 daily data points
Annotated milestones
3 of 4
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
110
single-side data only
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week14 weeks
Bottom Line
We assess with low confidence that the New Caledonia independence conflict has not produced any verifiable escalatory events in the past 48 hours. Despite the system-flagged escalation score of 100/100, the evidence pack contains zero articles directly related to New Caledonia, its independence movement, or civil unrest in the territory. The pack instead covers France-related stories (cyberattacks, naval operations, diplomacy) with no nexus to the Pacific territory. This
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
Top 10 shown · global share % = country’s share of worldwide production at this stageFull dataset via API · contact
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology
This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 20 dispatches across 19 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.
Event volume and casualty counts key off FR as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.
