Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
605
total events across belligerents · 72 daily data points
Annotated milestones
4 of 4
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
18
single-side data only
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week14 weeks
Bottom Line
We assess with high confidence that the US trade war has entered a new escalatory phase on multiple fronts: Congress has cleared a Russia sanctions bill authorizing tariffs up to 100% on major Russian energy buyers (directly impacting China and India), while President Trump has simultaneously threatened the EU with "very serious tariffs" over a proposed Canada associate membership — developments that, combined with a Federal Reserve rate hike strengthening the dollar, are res
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
Oil, lithium, semiconductors, rare-earth, and other strategic commodities
Critical resource exposure · pipeline pending
Critical-resource exposure tracking (oil, lithium, semiconductors, rare-earth, graphite) is being wired into the per-conflict view. Sign up for the API beta to be notified when the dataset is live.
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology
This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 20 dispatches across 9 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.
Event volume and casualty counts key off BD as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.
