Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
57
total events across belligerents · 31 daily data points
Annotated milestones
1 of 4
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
188
single-side data only
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week13 weeks
Bottom Line
We assess with high confidence that Haiti's gang crisis has reached a critical inflection point, with a major armed gang attack on Kenscoff killing at least 47 people and kidnapping over 50, occurring alongside the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse — events that together drive the escalation score to 100/100 and signal a near-total collapse of state security capacity in the Port-au-Prince metropolitan area.
Key Developments (last 24–48 hours)
Aug 29 — Haitian Pr
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
Oil, lithium, semiconductors, rare-earth, and other strategic commodities
Critical resource exposure · pipeline pending
Critical-resource exposure tracking (oil, lithium, semiconductors, rare-earth, graphite) is being wired into the per-conflict view. Sign up for the API beta to be notified when the dataset is live.
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology
This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 7 dispatches across 6 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.
Event volume and casualty counts key off HT as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.
