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Times of IndiaJapan · United States · Haiti
Daily briefOperational risk · 90d →
Haiti.
Republic of Haiti · Port-au-Prince · 11.9M people · central-america-n-caribbean
Governmentsemi-presidential republicLanguagesFrench (official), Creole (official)Area27.8K km²Sanctioned entities67Active conflicts2Mentions 7d3 ▼ 50%CIA· Jan 2026
Stability Score?How the stability score is computedA weighted composite of seven pillars— conflict intensity, event volatility, arms activity, economic health, market stress, sanctions exposure, and humanitarian proxy. Each pillar is scored 0–100 (higher = healthier). The composite is weighted (conflict 25%, economy 20%, events 15%, the rest 10% each) and recomputed daily from strategic events, World Bank indicators, arms-transfer data, and sanctions records.
Risk tier: Critical < 25 · High 25–50 · Elevated 50–75 · Stable≥ 75.
Risk tier: Critical < 25 · High 25–50 · Elevated 50–75 · Stable≥ 75.
57.6
High risk
31-day trend
Intelligence briefGenerated Aug 30, 2026 · CLAUDE-HAIKU-4-5-20251001 · 0 sources
The other side. See this brief from Haiti's frame — local-language sources elevated, Western framing flagged.
BLUF · Bottom Line Up Front
Coordinated gang violence in Kenscoff kills 47+, displaces 2,647 residents within 24 hours.
On 29 August 2026, armed gangs executed a major attack on Kenscoff farming community resulting in at least 47 deaths and over 50 kidnappings. The assault triggered mass displacement of 2,647 residents, indicating both tactical coordination and severe humanitarian impact. This represents a significant escalation in gang-driven violence targeting civilian populations.
Confidence HIGHDivergence LOWSingle-source claims 0
Haiti · 90-day event volume
49
total events · 90 daily data points
Annotated milestones
1 of 12
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Key Judgments
01
Gang attack on Kenscoff represents coordinated, high-casualty operation targeting civilian farming population.
Multiple independent intelligence events confirm at least 47 fatalities and over 50 kidnappings in a single gang operation against Kenscoff on 29 August 2026. The scale, targeting of agricultural community, and simultaneous kidnapping component indicate operational planning beyond opportunistic violence. This severity level (8/10) suggests either inter-gang coordination or a single well-organized criminal faction executing expanded territorial control operations.
high confidence3 sourcesEN
02
Acute humanitarian displacement crisis generated; 2,647 residents now vulnerable to trafficking, recruitment.
The Kenscoff attack produced immediate displacement of 2,647 residents, creating a vulnerable population susceptible to gang recruitment, human trafficking, or further victimization. Mass displacement of this scale within 24 hours indicates breakdown of local security and suggests gangs have achieved effective territorial denial of the farming community. This population will require humanitarian assistance and presents secondary security risks.
high confidence1 sourceEN
03
Gang kidnapping of 50+ persons suggests shift toward hostage-taking for ransom or forced recruitment.
The over 50 kidnappings during the Kenscoff operation, distinct from combat fatalities, indicates gangs are using captive-taking as operational objective rather than collateral outcome. This reflects either organized ransom operations or forced conscription into gang ranks. Kidnapping at this scale represents pressure on families and potential funding mechanism for armed groups.
moderate confidence1 sourceEN
Watchlist · next 48 hours
01
Ransom demands or hostage release negotiations from kidnapped Kenscoff victims.
Indicator · Public statements, intermediary communications, or media reports of ransom claims by named gang faction(s); evidence of hostage release or execution.
75%
02
Secondary gang violence or territorial consolidation moves in Port-au-Prince or adjacent rural areas.
Indicator · Reports of follow-on attacks, checkpoint establishment, or gang faction claiming credit for Kenscoff operation on local radio/social media.
65%
03
Humanitarian response mobilization or access denial by gangs to displaced population.
Indicator · NGO/UN reports of aid delivery attempts to 2,647 displaced; gang harassment or taxation of relief convoys; cholera/disease outbreak risk in displacement sites.
60%
04
Government security force or UNPOL response operations in Kenscoff area.
Indicator · Haitian National Police (PNH) deployment announcements; joint operations with international security partners; casualty reports from counter-gang operations.
45%
+How we produced this brief
Generated under ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft standards by CLAUDE-HAIKU-4-5-20251001. Evidence pack drawn from 3 dispatches over the trailing 48 hours, plus structured intelligence-event rows, extracted quantities, and threat-evidence records.
Local-language reporting is incorporated where available , with explicit divergence flagging where local and Western framing diverge. Every claim ships with a calibrated confidence statement.
Event timelineLast 7 days · 10 milestones · hover for context
AUG 30
2026
Armed gang attack
battle · severity 8
Critical
AUG 30
2026
Gang violence escalation
conflict_escalation · severity 9
Critical
AUG 30
2026
Displacement in Haiti
refugee_flow · severity 6
Elevated
AUG 29
2026
Gang Attack in Kenscoff
battle · severity 8
Critical
AUG 29
2026
Displacement in Kenscoff
refugee_flow · severity 6
Elevated
AUG 29
2026
Haiti gang attack
battle · severity 8
Critical
AUG 26
2026
Gang Attack in Kenscoff
battle · severity 8
Critical
AUG 25
2026
Gang Violence in Haiti
conflict_escalation · severity 7
Elevated
AUG 25
2026
Haitian Deportations
refugee_flow · severity 6
Elevated
AUG 25
2026
Armed Attack in Kenscoff
terrorist_attack · severity 8
Critical
Stability components7-pillar breakdown · each 0–100, higher = healthier · 30-day trend per pillar
Conflict Intensity
25/100 · 25% wt
target conflicts: 2domestic conflicts: 1max escalation score: 100
Event Volatility
92/100 · 15% wt
target events: 19actor only events: 0domestic events: 1severe domestic: 1instability rate: 2.10%article coverage 90d: 993
Arms Activity
97/100 · 10% wt
arms imports: 1total value usd: $0conflict amplified: yes
Economic Health
42/100 · 20% wt
gdp growth pct: -4.18%inflation pct: 26.95%unemployment pct: 14.61%
Market Stress
50/100 · 10% wt
total signals 30d: 0negative signals 30d: 0
Sanctions Exposure
87/100 · 10% wt
sanctioned entities: 67is sanctioning power: no
Humanitarian Proxy
58/100 · 10% wt
life expectancy: 65.1literacy rate: 68.00%
Risk matrix5 enterprise-decision dimensions · derived from the 7 stability pillars · higher = more risk
Political42Moderate
Security41Moderate
Economic55Elevated
Regulatory13Stable
Operational41Moderate
Risk dimensions are derived from the 7 stability pillars. Higher score = more risk (inverted from the stability score, where higher = healthier). Operational is a weighted composite intended for enterprise-decision use.
Peer comparisonSame-region countries by stability score · this country highlighted
Peer comparison · central-america-n-caribbean
Rank 2 of 33
0153.4
0254.4
0363.6
0477.4
0584.6
0685.3
0786.3
0888.9
EconomyWorld Bank · 10-year series · 16 indicators
GDP (current USD)
WB· 2024$24.3B
▲ $4.7B YoY
GDP per capita
WB· 2024$2.1K
▲ $379 YoY
Inflation (CPI)
WB· 202426.9%
▼ 9.9% YoY
Unemployment
WB· 202414.6%
▲ 0.2% YoY
Population
WB· 202411.8M
▲ 135.2K YoY
Military spend %GDP
WB· 20240.07%
▲ 0.01% YoY
Life expectancy
WB· 202465.1 yrs
▲ 0.2 yrs YoY
Internet users %
WB· 202447.9%
▼ 0.1% YoY
Security12 recent events · 2 conflicts · 1 transfers
Event volume · 90 days
49
Casualties (killed) · 90 days
188
High-severity events
2026-08-30
Armed gang attack
Battle47 killed
2026-08-30
Gang violence escalation
Conflict Escalation
2026-08-30
Displacement in Haiti
Refugee Flow
2026-08-29
Gang Attack in Kenscoff
Battle47 killed
2026-08-29
Displacement in Kenscoff
Refugee Flow
2026-08-29
Haiti gang attack
Battle47 killed
2026-08-26
Gang Attack in Kenscoff
Battle47 killed
2026-08-25
Gang Violence in Haiti
Conflict Escalation
Active conflicts involving Haiti
Haiti gang conflict
Civil War · 12022 dispatches
Critical · 100
Haitian President Jovenel Moise's assassination
· 1 dispatches
Cold · 0
Latest dispatches10 in country corpus · sources come online as coverage grows
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Forward calendar · relatedUpcoming scheduled events · co-mentioned countries · conflicts · recent reports
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+Methodology · how this profile is built
This profile draws from four data tiers. Baseline facts (geography, languages, religion) are from the CIA World Factbook snapshot of January 2026 — the final snapshot before the website was retired. Economic indicators refresh daily from the World Bank. Events, conflicts, dispatches, and entity mentions flow continuously from our continuous intelligence graph — sources come online as we add them. Intelligence briefs are generated daily under ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft standards.
Coverage of Haiti will sharpen as we add local-language sources. Every field above carries a provenance chip so you can judge freshness for yourself.