Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
42,025
total events across belligerents · 93 daily data points
Annotated milestones
1 of 4
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
14,633
353 Yemen · 14,280 Israel
YemenIsrael
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week13 weeks
Bottom Line
We assess with high confidence that the US-Iran conflict — which directly shapes the Yemen civil war theater through Houthi-aligned Iranian proxy networks — has escalated sharply, with both sides exchanging direct strikes in the Gulf and President Trump threatening to "militarily complete the job," placing the fragile two-week-old interim ceasefire on the verge of collapse. The escalation score of 100/100 is consistent with the evidence.
Key Developments
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology
This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 20 dispatches across 14 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.
Event volume and casualty counts key off YE as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.
