Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
13,967
total events across belligerents · 92 daily data points
Annotated milestones
1 of 4
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
1,917
1,786 Yemen · 131 Saudi Arabia
YemenSaudi Arabia
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week13 weeks
Bottom Line
We assess with moderate confidence that the Yemen civil war has been subsumed into a broader US-Israel-Iran regional conflict now six months old, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively contested between IRGC naval forces and US-led operations, creating cascading energy, shipping, and humanitarian consequences across the Gulf. The conflict has reached a prolonged stalemate with no near-term resolution indicators.
Key Developments (last 24–48 hours)
Aug 30 — Iran's IR
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology
This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 20 dispatches across 11 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.
Event volume and casualty counts key off YE as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.
