Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
6,429
total events across belligerents · 89 daily data points
Annotated milestones
2 of 4
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
3,298
63 United Kingdom · 3,235 Iran
United KingdomIran
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week14 weeks
Bottom Line
We assess with low confidence that the Garvaghy Road dispute — historically a localized civil-rights and parading-rights flashpoint in Northern Ireland — cannot be evaluated against current evidence. The evidence pack contains zero articles referencing the Garvaghy Road, Northern Ireland parading disputes, or any GB–Irish Republican confrontation. The escalation score of 100/100 is unverifiable from available sourcing. The pack instead reflects a broader US-Iran war a
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology
This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 20 dispatches across 16 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.
Event volume and casualty counts key off GB as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.
