Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
254
total events across belligerents · 63 daily data points
Annotated milestones
2 of 4
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
99
single-side data only
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week14 weeks
Bottom Line
We assess with high confidence that the Congolese conflict has reached a critical inflection point: former President Joseph Kabila has reportedly aligned with a rebel coalition — including the resurgent M23 — that has seized the strategic eastern cities of Goma and Bukavu and is now targeting Kinshasa, signaling a potential nationwide civil war rather than a contained eastern insurgency. The escalation score of 100/100 is consistent with the evidence.
Key Developments (last 2
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
Top 10 shown · global share % = country’s share of worldwide production at this stageFull dataset via API · contact
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology
This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 6 dispatches across 6 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.
Event volume and casualty counts key off CD as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.
