GeoMemo
WED, MAY 13 · EDT
Brief›Conflicts

Af-Pak conflict.

Critical · 87/100Waractive19,077 dispatches indexedlatest event May 11, 2026
Escalation
87
·Critical · /100
Events · 24h
1
▼-38 vs 7d avg
Fatalities · 7d
1,464
▲+1,444 vs prior 7d
Media divergence
—
·Divergence
US & Afghan Government
United States
Active support
Pakistan
Pakistan
Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
3,384
total events across belligerents · 92 daily data points
Annotated milestones
2 of 4
WAR CRIMEUS OVERTHROWS2026-02-122026-03-302026-05-15
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
52,851
22,477 US & Afghan Government · 30,374 Pakistan
US & Afghan GovernmentPakistan
2026-02-092026-05-1121,226
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week14 weeks
No daily brief has been generated for this conflict yet. Briefs are produced for the highest-activity conflicts first; this one becomes eligible as coverage volume climbs.
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
SeverityDateEventCountries
10.0May 5US Overthrows TalibanAF
10.0Apr 30US-Iran Talks StalledPK
10.0Apr 25Ben Roberts-Smith charged with war crimesAF
10.0Apr 23Murders in AfghanistanAF
10.0Apr 23Murder ChargesAF
10.0Apr 23Alleged war crimes by Ben Roberts-SmithAF
10.0Apr 22Kabul airport attackAF
10.0Apr 19Nuclear war threatPK
10.0Apr 17Australian soldiers execute unarmed civiliansAF
10.0Apr 13Humanitarian crisis in AfghanistanAF
Top 10 shownFull dataset available via API · contact for access
Top 10
Strategic transfers
Arms, tech, and equipment flows where seller or buyer is a belligerent
DateFlowEquipmentTypeStatus
Apr 17CN→PKYuan class submarinesarms saledelivered
Apr 17CN→PK3000 km surface to surface missilearms saledelivered
Apr 16PK→USrare earth mineralscritical tech transferdelivered
Apr 16US→PKrare-earth resourcescritical tech transferproposed
Apr 16US→PKstablecoincritical tech transferproposed
Apr 16IR→PKIranian gascritical tech transferproposed
Apr 16IN→PKOTPsintelligence sharingdelivered
Apr 15PK→IRP-1 centrifugetech transferdelivered
Apr 12PK→FJ 17 Thunderarms saledelivered
Apr 12PK→CNFJ 17 Thunderarms saledelivered
Top 10 shownFull dataset available via API · contact for access
Top 10
Critical resource flows
Oil, lithium, semiconductors, rare-earth, and other strategic commodities
MineralCountryStageReservesGlobal %
Critical mineralsAfghanistanmining—30.0%
Copper· Balochistan copper depositsPakistanmining——
Copper· Reko DiqPakistanmining——
Rare Earth· BalochistanPakistanmining——
Rare earth elements· Balochistan rare earth resourcesPakistanmining——
rare earthsPakistanmining——
Rare EarthsAfghanistanmining——
Top 7 shown · global share % = country’s share of worldwide production at this stageFull dataset via API · contact
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology

This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 0 dispatches across 0 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.

Event volume and casualty counts key off AF as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.