Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
36,379
total events across belligerents · 94 daily data points
Annotated milestones
1 of 4
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
8,364
4,023 Nigeria · 4,341 United States
NigeriaUnited States
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week13 weeks
Bottom Line
We assess with high confidence that Nigeria's multi-front insurgency has reached a critical intensity, with at least 250+ killed across airstrikes, military operations, and bandit attacks in the past 72 hours. The Nigerian military is conducting large-scale kinetic operations in Niger and Zamfara States—including strikes that have killed significant numbers of civilians—while ISIS-linked groups are reportedly expanding their African footprint, compounding an already sever
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
Top 10 shown · global share % = country’s share of worldwide production at this stageFull dataset via API · contact
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology
This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 38 dispatches across 33 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.
Event volume and casualty counts key off NG as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.
