Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
1,225
total events across belligerents · 78 daily data points
Annotated milestones
2 of 4
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
3,285
single-side data only
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week14 weeks
Bottom Line
We assess with moderate confidence that Colombia's internal conflict remains at critical intensity, with simultaneous armed clashes, improvised drone attacks near strategic infrastructure in Bogotá, and escalating urban violence in Cali, while a partial demobilization signal from one armed group has yet to alter the overall trajectory.
Key Developments (last 24–48 hours)
May 9 — Clashes in Urrao, Antioquia killed at least 6 combatants, indicating active armed confronta
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
Top 6 shown · global share % = country’s share of worldwide production at this stageFull dataset via API · contact
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology
This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 25 dispatches across 12 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.
Event volume and casualty counts key off CO as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.
