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kayhan.irUnited States · Israel · UAE
Daily briefOperational risk · 90d →
Sudan.
Republic of the Sudan · Khartoum · 50.5M people · africa
Governmentpresidential republicLanguagesArabic (official), English (official), NubianArea1.9M km²Sanctioned entities153Active conflicts10Mentions 7d21 ▼ 51%CIA· Jan 2026
Stability Score?How the stability score is computedA weighted composite of seven pillars— conflict intensity, event volatility, arms activity, economic health, market stress, sanctions exposure, and humanitarian proxy. Each pillar is scored 0–100 (higher = healthier). The composite is weighted (conflict 25%, economy 20%, events 15%, the rest 10% each) and recomputed daily from strategic events, World Bank indicators, arms-transfer data, and sanctions records.
Risk tier: Critical < 25 · High 25–50 · Elevated 50–75 · Stable≥ 75.
Risk tier: Critical < 25 · High 25–50 · Elevated 50–75 · Stable≥ 75.
34.6
Critical risk
31-day trend
Intelligence briefGenerated Aug 28, 2026 · CLAUDE-HAIKU-4-5-20251001 · 3 sources
The other side. See this brief from Sudan's frame — local-language sources elevated, Western framing flagged.
BLUF · Bottom Line Up Front
Sudan faces imminent humanitarian collapse driven by global conflict spillovers and market attacks
The World Food Programme warns that escalating global conflicts are severely exacerbating Sudan's hunger crisis, pushing the nation toward famine conditions. Concurrent drone and missile strikes on Sudanese markets combined with rising global food costs create a compounding humanitarian catastrophe with 70% probability of near-term collapse.
Confidence HIGHDivergence LOWSingle-source claims 1
Linked Bayesian threats?Linked threatsBayesian-tracked threats from the system threat board where Sudan is involved. Each threat shows its current posterior probability and the 7-day move (in percentage points). Click any card for the full threat detail page.
Sudan · 90-day event volume
1,439
total events · 90 daily data points
Annotated milestones
1 of 12
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Key Judgments
01
Sudan humanitarian situation approaching critical threshold with 70% probability of collapse
Multiple threat assessments converge on Sudan facing imminent humanitarian collapse, with stability probability rated at 0.70 and trending upward in severity. The WFP attribution of the crisis to global conflict spillovers, combined with documented market attacks (severity 7) and rising global food costs (severity 7), indicates a multi-factor convergence amplifying famine risk.
high confidence4 sourcesEN
02
Global food price volatility directly constraining Sudan's food security independent of domestic supply
Global food and fuel cost increases (severity 7) are documented as contributing factors to Sudan's hunger crisis, with global food crisis probability assessed at 0.71 and trending upward. This indicates Sudan's vulnerability is no longer solely dependent on domestic conflict dynamics but is increasingly driven by international commodity market disruptions.
high confidence3 sourcesEN
03
Active drone and missile campaign targeting civilian economic infrastructure in Sudan
Intelligence events confirm market attacks via drones and missiles (severity 7) occurring on 2026-08-26, indicating sustained targeting of civilian economic nodes. This pattern, combined with the famine warning (severity 8), suggests deliberate disruption of food distribution and market access mechanisms beyond direct conflict casualties.
moderate confidence2 sourcesEN
04
Global conflict landscape deteriorating with Middle East regional expansion risk at 59%
Threat assessments indicate Middle East regional war expansion probability at 0.59 with rising trend, suggesting potential for further global conflict escalation. Such expansion could further constrain international humanitarian access and food supply chains critical to Sudan relief operations.
moderate confidence1 sourceEN
Watchlist · next 48 hours
01
WFP and UN agency humanitarian access restrictions or operational suspensions in Sudan
Indicator · Official announcements of suspended aid delivery, evacuation of international staff, or closure of distribution centers in major population centers
65%
02
Escalation of drone and missile strikes targeting civilian food storage, markets, or grain facilities
Indicator · Documented attacks on warehouses, silos, or market infrastructure; casualty reports; satellite imagery of strike damage
58%
03
Regional food price spikes or currency collapse affecting Sudan's import capacity
Indicator · Commodity futures price movements for wheat/maize; Sudanese pound exchange rate deterioration; commercial import transaction data
71%
04
Middle East conflict escalation reducing humanitarian shipping capacity and insurance availability for Sudan routes
Indicator · Regional military escalation events; shipping insurance rate increases; port disruptions; shipping line route changes avoiding Red Sea/Suez alternatives
59%
+How we produced this brief
Generated under ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft standards by CLAUDE-HAIKU-4-5-20251001. Evidence pack drawn from 7 dispatches over the trailing 48 hours, plus structured intelligence-event rows, extracted quantities, and threat-evidence records.
Local-language reporting is incorporated where available (EN), with explicit divergence flagging where local and Western framing diverge. Every claim ships with a calibrated confidence statement.
Event timelineLast 7 days · 12 milestones · hover for context
AUG 29
2026
Sudan Drought
drought · severity 6
Elevated
AUG 29
2026
Sudan Wildfires
wildfire · severity 6
Elevated
AUG 26
2026
Army Advances
ground_offensive · severity 6
Elevated
AUG 26
2026
Water Crisis Hits Sudan
refugee_flow · severity 8
Critical
AUG 26
2026
Sudan conflict escalation
conflict_escalation · severity 10
Critical
AUG 26
2026
Sudanese army gains
battle · severity 6
Elevated
AUG 26
2026
RSF retakes Kurmuk
battle · severity 6
Elevated
AUG 26
2026
Drone attacks on cities
drone_strike · severity 5
Moderate
AUG 26
2026
Rebel Attack in Sudan
battle · severity 8
Critical
AUG 26
2026
Sudan Hunger Crisis
famine_warning · severity 8
Critical
Stability components7-pillar breakdown · each 0–100, higher = healthier · 30-day trend per pillar
Conflict Intensity
0/100 · 25% wt
target conflicts: 4domestic conflicts: 2max escalation score: 100
Event Volatility
84/100 · 15% wt
target events: 92actor only events: 8domestic events: 25severe domestic: 1instability rate: 6.10%article coverage 90d: 2,376
Arms Activity
0/100 · 10% wt
arms imports: 461total value usd: $81.75Bconflict amplified: yes
Economic Health
25/100 · 20% wt
gdp growth pct: -13.96%inflation pct: 138.81%unemployment pct: 7.53%
Market Stress
80/100 · 10% wt
total signals 30d: 10negative signals 30d: 2
Sanctions Exposure
69/100 · 10% wt
sanctioned entities: 153is sanctioning power: no
Humanitarian Proxy
59/100 · 10% wt
life expectancy: 66.5literacy rate: —
Risk matrix5 enterprise-decision dimensions · derived from the 7 stability pillars · higher = more risk
Political41Moderate
Security75Elevated
Economic53Elevated
Regulatory31Moderate
Operational49Moderate
Risk dimensions are derived from the 7 stability pillars. Higher score = more risk (inverted from the stability score, where higher = healthier). Operational is a weighted composite intended for enterprise-decision use.
Peer comparisonSame-region countries by stability score · this country highlighted
Peer comparison · Africa
Rank 1 of 56
0137.1
0241.8
0344.8
0445.3
0548.4
0653.7
0758.4
0859.9
EconomyWorld Bank · 10-year series · 16 indicators
GDP (current USD)
WB· 2024$49.7B
▲ $9.8B YoY
GDP per capita
WB· 2024$985
▲ $187 YoY
Inflation (CPI)
WB· 2022138.8%
▼ 220.3% YoY
Unemployment
WB· 20227.5%
▼ 3.6% YoY
Population
WB· 202450.4M
▲ 406.2K YoY
Military spend %GDP
WB· 20210.93%
▼ 0.05% YoY
Life expectancy
WB· 202466.5 yrs
▲ 0.2 yrs YoY
Internet users %
WB· 202026.4%
Security12 recent events · 10 conflicts · 10 transfers
Event volume · 90 days
1439
Casualties (killed) · 90 days
3128
High-severity events
2026-08-29
Sudan Drought
Drought
2026-08-29
Sudan Wildfires
Wildfire
2026-08-26
Army Advances
Ground Offensive
2026-08-26
Water Crisis Hits Sudan
Refugee Flow
2026-08-26
Sudan conflict escalation
Conflict Escalation5,000 killed
2026-08-26
Sudanese army gains
Battle
2026-08-26
RSF retakes Kurmuk
Battle
2026-08-26
Drone attacks on cities
Drone Strike
Active conflicts involving Sudan
Iran war
Civil War · 382865 dispatches
Critical · 100
Persian Gulf conflict
Maritime · 67408 dispatches
Critical · 100
West Asia conflict
War · 27797 dispatches
Critical · 100
Boko Haram insurgency
Insurgency · 22904 dispatches
Critical · 100
Latest dispatches10 in country corpus · sources come online as coverage grows
Geopolitical Politics
Saudi Arabia’s Recalibrated Engagement in Sudan and the Red Sea - horn review
horn review
International Relations
Indonesia urges OIC to act on Israeli violations against Palestinians
ANTARA News - Latest Indonesia News
Climate & Humanitarian Crisis
Sudanese repair roads by hand in Darfur to improve emergency access
Al Jazeera
Climate & Humanitarian Crisis
Sudan lifts two-year curfew in Khartoum amid ongoing conflict
CGTN
What Is Driving the SAF’s War of Narratives Against Ethiopia? - horn review
horn review
Sudan’s date palm trees under threat from drought and wildfires
Al Jazeera
FM reaffirms support for Sudan’s unity, sovereignty, territorial integrity - Egypt Independent
Egypt Independent
FM reaffirms support for Sudan’s unity, sovereignty, territorial integrity
Egypt Independent
‘I survived the Taliban to go to school – now the UK has blocked me from studying at Oxford’
The Independent
Think tanks · this country13 articles from research institutions tracking Sudan
Stimson Center
North Africa Regional Outlook: May 13, 2026
May 15, 2026
CSIS | Center for Strategic and International Studies
Global Food and Water Security Program
Apr 28, 2026
Stimson Center
North Africa Regional Outlook: April 22, 2026
Apr 22, 2026
Center for American Progress
Trump’s War of Choice With Iran Threatens a Global Hunger and Health Crisis
Apr 22, 2026
Stimson Center
Sudan: How One of the Most Severe Humanitarian Crises Became Marginalized in the Global System
Apr 20, 2026
CSIS | Center for Strategic and International Studies
The Sudan War in 10 Charts
Apr 18, 2026
The Heritage Foundation
How Sudan’s Economic Collapse Creates an Opening for China
Apr 16, 2026
Council on Foreign Relations
How Conflict in Iran Is Breaking Global Humanitarian Aid Efforts
Apr 4, 2026
Chatham House
Chatham House - International Affairs Think Tank
Apr 3, 2026
Top entitiesMost-mentioned actors in Sudan-tagged articles · last 30 days
Forward calendar · relatedUpcoming scheduled events · co-mentioned countries · conflicts · recent reports
+Methodology · how this profile is built
This profile draws from four data tiers. Baseline facts (geography, languages, religion) are from the CIA World Factbook snapshot of January 2026 — the final snapshot before the website was retired. Economic indicators refresh daily from the World Bank. Events, conflicts, dispatches, and entity mentions flow continuously from our continuous intelligence graph — sources come online as we add them. Intelligence briefs are generated daily under ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft standards.
Coverage of Sudan will sharpen as we add local-language sources. Every field above carries a provenance chip so you can judge freshness for yourself.