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Brief›Conflicts

Yemeni war.

Critical · 94/100Civil Waractive2,591 dispatches indexedlatest event May 12, 2026
Escalation
94
·Critical · /100
Events · 24h
1
▼-44 vs 7d avg
Fatalities · 7d
20,670
▲+5,626 vs prior 7d
Media divergence
—
·Divergence
Side A
Israel
Side B
Yemen
Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
5,164
total events across belligerents · 92 daily data points
Annotated milestones
1 of 4
BATTLE2026-02-122026-03-302026-05-14
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
249,943
215,451 Israel · 34,492 Yemen
IsraelYemen
2026-02-092026-05-11145,924
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week14 weeks
Market signal · Brent crude
—
USD/bbl · live data pending
No daily brief has been generated for this conflict yet. Briefs are produced for the highest-activity conflicts first; this one becomes eligible as coverage volume climbs.
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
SeverityDateEventCountries
10.0May 11Israel-US War on IranIL
10.0May 11Israel Gaza ConflictIL
10.0May 10Israel's Retaliatory WarIL
10.0May 8Gaza ConflictIL
10.0May 8Aid efforts hinderedYE
10.0May 7Israel's AssaultIL
10.0May 6Israel-US War with IranIL
10.0May 6Gaza ConflictIL
10.0May 6Gaza Aid BlockageIL
10.0May 2Israel-Hezbollah ExchangesIL
Top 10 shownFull dataset available via API · contact for access
Top 10
Strategic transfers
Arms, tech, and equipment flows where seller or buyer is a belligerent
DateFlowEquipmentTypeStatus
Apr 17IR→YEmissilecritical tech transferdelivered
Apr 17US→ILair-to-air missilesarms salecontracted
Apr 17IR→YEmissilecritical tech transferdelivered
Apr 16US→ILmissilearms saleannounced
Apr 16US→ILBLU-110A/B· qty 12000arms salecontracted
Apr 16US→ILCaterpillar D-9 bulldozersarms saleproposed
Apr 16IL→TWT-DOM missile defense systemarms salecontracted
Apr 16US→ILbulldozersarms saleproposed
Apr 16IL→ESmissilearms salecancelled
Apr 16US→ILD9R and D9T Caterpillar bulldozersarms salecontracted
Top 10 shownFull dataset available via API · contact for access
Top 10
Critical resource flows
Oil, lithium, semiconductors, rare-earth, and other strategic commodities
MineralCountryStageReservesGlobal %
LithiumIsraelprocessing——
Top 1 shown · global share % = country’s share of worldwide production at this stageFull dataset via API · contact
Threat board
Linked Bayesian threats
Probability-tracked threats tied to Israel · 1 active
conflict
Middle East regional war expansion
42%▼ 38.1pp
7-day Bayesian update
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology

This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 0 dispatches across 0 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.

Event volume and casualty counts key off IL as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.