Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
33,434
total events across belligerents · 95 daily data points
Annotated milestones
2 of 4
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
4,305
single-side data only
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week14 weeks
Bottom Line
We assess with low confidence that the US tariff war, as a distinct trade conflict, shows minimal direct activity in the current evidence pack. The escalation score of 0/100 is consistent with the absence of new tariff-specific developments. However, the US is actively pivoting toward economic warfare tools — sanctions, oil blockades, and financial pressure — in the context of the Iran conflict, and secondary economic effects (tourism decline, energy price shocks, IMF
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
Top 10 shown · global share % = country’s share of worldwide production at this stageFull dataset via API · contact
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology
This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 20 dispatches across 10 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.
Event volume and casualty counts key off US as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.
