Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
32,173
total events across belligerents · 95 daily data points
Annotated milestones
1 of 4
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
5,719
single-side data only
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week14 weeks
Bottom Line
We assess with high confidence that there is no evidence of a US civil war or domestic armed conflict. The escalation score of 0/100 is consistent with the evidence pack, which contains zero indicators of intra-US belligerent activity. All US-related conflict reporting pertains to the ongoing US-Iran war in the Middle East and associated diplomatic, economic, and military developments abroad.
Key Developments (last 24–48 hours)
Apr 15 — VP Vance stated Trum
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
Oil, lithium, semiconductors, rare-earth, and other strategic commodities
Critical resource exposure · pipeline pending
Critical-resource exposure tracking (oil, lithium, semiconductors, rare-earth, graphite) is being wired into the per-conflict view. Sign up for the API beta to be notified when the dataset is live.
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology
This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 20 dispatches across 10 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.
Event volume and casualty counts key off US as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.
