Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
9,233
total events across belligerents · 91 daily data points
Annotated milestones
1 of 4
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
12,699
9,451 US-Israel Alliance · 3,248 Iran
US-Israel AllianceIran
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week14 weeks
Market signal · Brent crude
—
USD/bbl · live data pending
Bottom Line
We assess with high confidence that the Middle East conflict has entered a critical diplomatic impasse: President Trump's rejection of Iran's response to a ceasefire proposal on or around May 10–11 has collapsed near-term prospects for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, driving oil up 4%, rattling global equity markets, and pushing the escalation trajectory to its maximum score. The upcoming Trump-Xi summit (May 14–15) is now the most consequential diplomatic window for de-escal
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology
This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 20 dispatches across 16 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.
Event volume and casualty counts key off IL as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.
