Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
142
total events across belligerents · 45 daily data points
Annotated milestones
2 of 4
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
42
single-side data only
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week14 weeks
Bottom Line
We assess with low confidence that Bolivia's internal security environment remains volatile, marked by a targeted assassination and underlying economic fragility, but the evidence pack is too thin (fewer than 3 substantive conflict events) to support a robust assessment of the "Gasolinazo protests" trajectory or justify the current escalation score of 100/100.
Key Developments (last 24–48 hours)
May 7 — Rally pilot José Pedro Rojas Velasco was assassinated by a
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
Top 7 shown · global share % = country’s share of worldwide production at this stageFull dataset via API · contact
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology
This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 3 dispatches across 3 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.
Event volume and casualty counts key off BO as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.
