Other
Sebastián Chang logra el subcampeonato en Sub-16 del Cóndor de Plata
Sebastián Chang wins the Sub-16 silver medal at the Cóndor de Plata tournament in Cochabamba.
LostiemposBolivia
Daily briefOperational risk · 90d →
Bolivia.
Plurinational State of Bolivia · La Paz (administrative capital); Sucre (constitutional [legislative and judicial] capital) · 12.4M people · south-america
Governmentpresidential republicLanguagesSpanish (official) 68.1%, Quechua (official) 17.2%, Aymara (official) 10.5%Area1.1M km²Sanctioned entities6Active conflicts5Mentions 7d14 ▲ 8%CIA· Jan 2026
Stability Score?How the stability score is computedA weighted composite of seven pillars— conflict intensity, event volatility, arms activity, economic health, market stress, sanctions exposure, and humanitarian proxy. Each pillar is scored 0–100 (higher = healthier). The composite is weighted (conflict 25%, economy 20%, events 15%, the rest 10% each) and recomputed daily from strategic events, World Bank indicators, arms-transfer data, and sanctions records.
Risk tier: Critical < 25 · High 25–50 · Elevated 50–75 · Stable≥ 75.
Risk tier: Critical < 25 · High 25–50 · Elevated 50–75 · Stable≥ 75.
70.4
Elevated risk
30-day trend
Intelligence briefGenerated Oct 18, 2026 · CLAUDE-HAIKU-4-5-20251001 · 15 sources
The other side. See this brief from Bolivia's frame — local-language sources elevated, Western framing flagged.
BLUF · Bottom Line Up Front
Bolivia-Chile diplomatic reset advances amid deepening energy crisis and trade disputes.
Chilean President Kast's first state visit to Bolivia in 71 years concluded with five bilateral agreements on mining, energy, trade, and connectivity, signaling normalization of relations. Simultaneously, Bolivia faces acute energy shortages from depleting natural gas reserves, mounting trade frictions with Argentina over customs restrictions, and a timber dispute with Chile affecting US and Mexican importers.
Confidence HIGHDivergence LOWSingle-source claims 2
Bolivia · 90-day event volume
142
total events · 90 daily data points
Annotated milestones
1 of 12
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Key Judgments
01
Bolivia's natural gas crisis poses immediate economic and governance risks requiring urgent foreign energy cooperation.
Bolivia's proven gas reserves have declined 53% since 2016 due to underinvestment and policy failures, forcing the government to seek imports. Projections indicate Bolivia will begin importing Argentine Vaca Muerta gas by 2031, marking a fundamental shift from energy exporter to importer status. The energy shortages directly threaten economic stability and government legitimacy, making energy security a strategic priority reflected in the Kast bilateral discussions.
high confidence3 sourcesEN · ES
02
Bolivia-Chile diplomatic normalization creates framework for addressing shared economic and infrastructure challenges.
The Kast visit and five signed agreements represent substantive progress on trade, mining, energy transport, and digital connectivity after seven decades of limited relations. The timing aligns with Bolivia's acute need for energy imports and regional mineral investment, suggesting strategic coordination. Cross-border governor meetings on infrastructure and logistics indicate implementation momentum beyond symbolic gestures.
high confidence8 sourcesES · EN
03
Argentine customs restrictions are escalating trade friction and threatening Bolivia's cross-border commerce.
Yacuiba carters plan to block an international bridge with Argentina on Monday to protest customs restrictions that reduced their work volume by 25-30%. This represents immediate disruption to bilateral trade and signals growing tensions over merchandise policies. The dispute occurs as Bolivia seeks closer economic ties with Chile, potentially reflecting broader regional trade fragmentation.
high confidence1 sourceES
04
Timber dispute with Chile threatens US-Mexico trade relationships and reveals regulatory vulnerabilities.
Seizure and incineration of 1,000 tons of Bolivian timber in Chile prompted formal complaints from US and Mexican importers citing unverified testing and contradictory results. President Paz raised the issue directly with Kast, requesting governmental assistance. The incident exposes Bolivia's vulnerability to unilateral enforcement actions and potential protectionism affecting third-country traders.
moderate confidence2 sourcesES
05
Mineral sector development agreements position Bolivia for expanded mining investment and employment.
Bolivia participated in World Bank-sponsored development compacts with seven other countries committing to $19 billion in mining financing over five years. Bilateral agreements with Chile on mining cooperation and Bolivia's pursuit of the Humboldt submarine cable connection indicate strategic positioning for regional mineral hub status. However, these initiatives require sustained governance improvements and infrastructure investment.
moderate confidence3 sourcesEN · ES
Watchlist · next 48 hours
01
Monitor Yacuiba bridge blockade and Argentine response to carter protests.
Indicator · International bridge closure confirmation, duration of blockade, Argentine customs policy modification announcement, or escalation to broader transit disruptions.
72%
02
Track implementation of Bolivia-Chile bilateral agreements, particularly energy cooperation framework.
Indicator · Announcement of joint energy task force, gas import agreement timelines, or specific infrastructure project initiation for Vaca Muerta integration.
68%
03
Assess Chile's resolution of timber dispute and impact on Bolivian wood export market.
Indicator · Chilean government statement on timber testing protocols, partial shipment release, US-Mexico importer statement, or policy clarification on Bolivian agricultural products.
55%
04
Observe Bolivia's progress on World Bank mineral development compact commitments.
Indicator · Government announcement of mining sector reforms, investment attraction campaign launch, or disclosure of specific project pipeline aligned with development compact.
48%
+How we produced this brief
Generated under ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft standards by CLAUDE-HAIKU-4-5-20251001. Evidence pack drawn from 42 dispatches over the trailing 48 hours, plus structured intelligence-event rows, extracted quantities, and threat-evidence records.
Local-language reporting is incorporated where available (EN, ES), with explicit divergence flagging where local and Western framing diverge. Every claim ships with a calibrated confidence statement.
Event timelineLast 7 days · 12 milestones · hover for context
OCT 17
2026
Earthquake in Potosi
earthquake · severity 4
Moderate
OCT 17
2026
Bolivia-Argentina Trade Tension
diplomatic_tension · severity 4
Moderate
OCT 17
2026
Kast visits Bolivia
diplomatic_visit · severity 4
Moderate
OCT 17
2026
Maritime demand strains relations
diplomatic_tension · severity 6
Elevated
OCT 17
2026
Bolivia Energy Crisis
economic_indicator · severity 7
Elevated
OCT 17
2026
Kast visits Bolivia
diplomatic_visit · severity 2
Moderate
OCT 17
2026
Bolivia-Chile Border
diplomatic_visit · severity 2
Moderate
OCT 17
2026
Bolivia-Chile Wood Conflict
diplomatic_tension · severity 4
Moderate
OCT 17
2026
Bolivia-Chile Meeting
diplomatic_visit · severity 2
Moderate
OCT 17
2026
Bolivia-Chile Talks
diplomatic_visit · severity 2
Moderate
Stability components7-pillar breakdown · each 0–100, higher = healthier · 30-day trend per pillar
Conflict Intensity
30/100 · 25% wt
target conflicts: 2domestic conflicts: 0max escalation score: 100
Event Volatility
100/100 · 15% wt
target events: 2actor only events: 0domestic events: 0severe domestic: 0instability rate: 0.00%article coverage 90d: 5,854
Arms Activity
87/100 · 10% wt
arms imports: 4total value usd: $0conflict amplified: yes
Economic Health
74/100 · 20% wt
gdp growth pct: -1.12%inflation pct: 5.10%unemployment pct: 3.27%
Market Stress
43/100 · 10% wt
total signals 30d: 7negative signals 30d: 4
Sanctions Exposure
99/100 · 10% wt
sanctioned entities: 6is sanctioning power: no
Humanitarian Proxy
80/100 · 10% wt
life expectancy: 68.7literacy rate: 96.70%
Risk matrix5 enterprise-decision dimensions · derived from the 7 stability pillars · higher = more risk
Political20Stable
Security38Moderate
Economic38Moderate
Regulatory1Stable
Operational36Moderate
Risk dimensions are derived from the 7 stability pillars. Higher score = more risk (inverted from the stability score, where higher = healthier). Operational is a weighted composite intended for enterprise-decision use.
Peer comparisonSame-region countries by stability score · this country highlighted
Peer comparison · South America
Rank 7 of 14
0137.4
0247.2
0347.5
0459.0
0568.7
0670.0
0770.4
0872.2
EconomyWorld Bank · 10-year series · 18 indicators
GDP (current USD)
WB· 2024$54.9B
▲ $2.5B YoY
GDP per capita
WB· 2024$4.4K
▲ $146 YoY
Inflation (CPI)
WB· 20245.1%
▲ 2.5% YoY
Unemployment
WB· 20243.3%
▲ 0.3% YoY
Population
WB· 202412.4M
▲ 169.2K YoY
Military spend %GDP
WB· 20241.22%
▼ 0.08% YoY
Life expectancy
WB· 202468.7 yrs
▲ 0.2 yrs YoY
Internet users %
WB· 202479.7%
▲ 2.4% YoY
Security12 recent events · 5 conflicts · 5 transfers
Event volume · 90 days
142
Casualties (killed) · 90 days
42
High-severity events
2026-10-17
Earthquake in Potosi
Earthquake
2026-10-17
Bolivia-Argentina Trade Tension
Diplomatic Tension
2026-10-17
Kast visits Bolivia
Diplomatic Visit
2026-10-17
Maritime demand strains relations
Diplomatic Tension
2026-10-17
Bolivia Energy Crisis
Economic Indicator
2026-10-17
Kast visits Bolivia
Diplomatic Visit
2026-10-17
Bolivia-Chile Border
Diplomatic Visit
2026-10-17
Bolivia-Chile Wood Conflict
Diplomatic Tension
Active conflicts involving Bolivia
Colombia-Ecuador border tensions
Trade War · 23865 dispatches
Elevated · 45.2
Bolivian Gasolinazo protests
Civil War · 9169 dispatches
High · 52.5
Bolivia internal conflict
Civil War · 2130 dispatches
High · 52.5
Bolivia blockades
Civil War · 105 dispatches
High · 52.5
Latest dispatches10 in country corpus · sources come online as coverage grows
Other
Fallece Jorge J. Quiroga Luizaga, padre del expresidente Jorge 'Tuto' Quiroga
Lostiempos
Other
Hugo Dellien pasa a la final y buscará el bicampeonato del Bolivia Open
Lostiempos
Geopolitical Conflict
ONU: Bolivia se convirtió en un centro de operaciones de cárteles internacionales de droga
Lostiempos
Other
BCB asegura que no se repetirán los “corralitos” en dólares ni el empeño de reservas de oro
Lostiempos
Oviedo dice que las investigaciones en el caso Mariaca avanzan con cooperación internacional
Lostiempos
Impuesto escatológico
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Perfil
Think tanks · this country4 articles from research institutions tracking Bolivia
Instituto Igarapé
The first purchase of gold as a point of control: Towards a minimum standard to prevent illegal gold from entering the market
Sep 19, 2026
Instituto Igarapé
The first purchase of gold as a point of control: Towards a common floor to prevent the entry of illegal gold into the market
Sep 19, 2026
Instituto Igarapé
Study reveals obstacles in combating money laundering linked to environmental crimes
Sep 16, 2026
Instituto Igarapé
Markets and Forest: Regulatory Opportunities in the Amazon – Booklet 2: TIMBER
Sep 9, 2026
Top entitiesMost-mentioned actors in Bolivia-tagged articles · last 30 days
Forward calendar · relatedUpcoming scheduled events · co-mentioned countries · conflicts · recent reports
+Methodology · how this profile is built
This profile draws from four data tiers. Baseline facts (geography, languages, religion) are from the CIA World Factbook snapshot of January 2026 — the final snapshot before the website was retired. Economic indicators refresh daily from the World Bank. Events, conflicts, dispatches, and entity mentions flow continuously from our continuous intelligence graph — sources come online as we add them. Intelligence briefs are generated daily under ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft standards.
Coverage of Bolivia will sharpen as we add local-language sources. Every field above carries a provenance chip so you can judge freshness for yourself.