Plurinational State of Bolivia · La Paz (administrative capital); Sucre (constitutional [legislative and judicial] capital) · 12.4M people · south-america
Governmentpresidential republicLanguagesSpanish (official) 68.1%, Quechua (official) 17.2%, Aymara (official) 10.5%Area1.1M km²Sanctioned entities6Active conflicts1Mentions 7d3 ▼ 57%CIA· Jan 2026
Stability Score?How the stability score is computedA weighted composite of seven pillars— conflict intensity, event volatility, arms activity, economic health, market stress, sanctions exposure, and humanitarian proxy. Each pillar is scored 0–100 (higher = healthier). The composite is weighted (conflict 25%, economy 20%, events 15%, the rest 10% each) and recomputed daily from strategic events, World Bank indicators, arms-transfer data, and sanctions records.
Intelligence briefGenerated May 12, 2026 · CLAUDE-HAIKU-4-5-20251001 · 3 sources
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The other side.See this brief from Bolivia's frame — local-language sources elevated, Western framing flagged.
BLUF · Bottom Line Up Front
Constitutional reform push by Paz faces political opposition amid economic crisis
President Rodrigo Paz launched a constitutional reform initiative on 10-11 May targeting foreign investment attraction across hydrocarbon, electricity, and mining sectors. The proposal faces immediate opposition from Evo Morales supporters while Bolivia simultaneously confronts critical fuel shortages and elevated investor risk premiums despite potential US alignment.
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Key Judgments
01
Constitutional reform reflects Paz administration's prioritization of investment recovery over consensus-building
President Paz's announcement of a partial constitutional reform commission targeting hydrocarbon, electricity, and mining modernization indicates focus on structural economic remediation. Multiple sources confirm launch timing (10-11 May) and stated investment objectives, though sources do not detail specific reform provisions or timeline.
high confidence2 sourcesES · EN
02
Morales-aligned opposition mobilized against constitutional reform within 24 hours
El Intransigente reports immediate opposition pressure from Evo Morales supporters following Paz's reform announcement. This rapid political mobilization suggests the reform proposal threatens core constituencies and may face legislative obstacles to passage.
moderate confidence1 sourceES
03
Fuel shortage crisis compounds economic vulnerabilities during reform period
Concurrent with constitutional reform announcement, Bolivia faces severity-6 fuel shortages and price surge as of 10 May. This supply-side shock undermines government legitimacy and reduces political capital available for contentious reforms.
Inkl analysis on 12 May notes that Latin American Trump allies face elevated investor risk premiums prioritizing debt sustainability over political alignment. Bolivia's potential US alignment does not overcome market concerns about economic fundamentals and political instability.
moderate confidence1 sourceEN
Watchlist · next 48 hours
01
Constitutional reform commission composition and timeline announcement
Indicator · Official government statement naming commission members, meeting schedule, and deadline for reform proposal submission
75%
02
Escalation or expansion of Morales-aligned opposition mobilization
Indicator · Public statements from MAS party leadership, protest announcements, or legislative obstruction attempts regarding reform process
70%
03
Fuel shortage resolution or worsening
Indicator · Government announcement of fuel import agreement, supply restoration timeline, or price stabilization measures; or further severity escalation of shortages
65%
04
Foreign investor response to constitutional reform framework
Indicator · Public investor statements, FDI commitment announcements, or credit rating agency commentary on reform proposal viability
60%
+How we produced this brief
Generated under ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft standards by CLAUDE-HAIKU-4-5-20251001. Evidence pack drawn from 4 dispatches over the trailing 48 hours, plus structured intelligence-event rows, extracted quantities, and threat-evidence records.
Local-language reporting is incorporated where available (EN, ES), with explicit divergence flagging where local and Western framing diverge. Every claim ships with a calibrated confidence statement.
Event timelineLast 7 days · 3 milestones · hover for context
MAY 10
2026
Bolivia Fuel Shortages
economic_indicator · severity 6
Elevated
MAY 9
2026
Bolivia political tension
diplomatic_tension · severity 7
Elevated
MAY 8
2026
Bolivia Bond Issue
economic_indicator · severity 5
Moderate
Stability components7-pillar breakdown · each 0–100, higher = healthier · 30-day trend per pillar
arms imports: 2total value usd: $0conflict amplified: yes
Economic Health
74/100 · 20% wt
gdp growth pct: -1.12%inflation pct: 5.10%unemployment pct: 3.27%
Market Stress
43/100 · 10% wt
total signals 30d: 7negative signals 30d: 4
Sanctions Exposure
99/100 · 10% wt
sanctioned entities: 6is sanctioning power: no
Humanitarian Proxy
80/100 · 10% wt
life expectancy: 68.7literacy rate: 96.70%
Risk matrix5 enterprise-decision dimensions · derived from the 7 stability pillars · higher = more risk
Political
20Stable
Security
40Moderate
Economic
38Moderate
Regulatory
1Stable
Operational
40Moderate
Risk dimensions are derived from the 7 stability pillars. Higher score = more risk (inverted from the stability score, where higher = healthier). Operational is a weighted composite intended for enterprise-decision use.
This profile draws from four data tiers. Baseline facts (geography, languages, religion) are from the CIA World Factbook snapshot of January 2026 — the final snapshot before the website was retired. Economic indicators refresh daily from the World Bank. Events, conflicts, dispatches, and entity mentions flow continuously from our continuous intelligence graph — sources come online as we add them. Intelligence briefs are generated daily under ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft standards.
Coverage of Bolivia will sharpen as we add local-language sources. Every field above carries a provenance chip so you can judge freshness for yourself.
