Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
42,517
total events across belligerents · 96 daily data points
Annotated milestones
1 of 4
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
15,338
5 Colombia · 15,333 Ecuador
ColombiaEcuador
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week14 weeks
Bottom Line
We assess with low confidence that there is no verifiable evidence of active Colombia-Ecuador border tensions or a trade war involving Colombia, Ecuador, and the United States in the current evidence pack. The escalation score of 100.0/100 cannot be corroborated by any sourced reporting provided. The evidence pack is dominated by the US-Iran conflict, Middle East geopolitics, and global financial market reactions; it contains zero articles referencing Colombia, Ecuado
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
Top 10 shown · global share % = country’s share of worldwide production at this stageFull dataset via API · contact
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology
This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 20 dispatches across 17 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.
Event volume and casualty counts key off EC as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.
