Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
88
total events across belligerents · 38 daily data points
Annotated milestones
2 of 4
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
84
single-side data only
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week13 weeks
Bottom Line
We assess with low confidence that Bolivia's internal political crisis continues to intensify, but the evidence pack is extremely thin — containing only two articles, neither of which directly addresses active blockades or armed conflict. The escalation score of 100/100 cannot be substantiated with the available sourcing.
Key Developments (last 24–48 hours)
Aug 25 — Bolivian President Rodrigo Paz faces mounting domestic pressure following the arrest of his former A
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
Top 7 shown · global share % = country’s share of worldwide production at this stageFull dataset via API · contact
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology
This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 2 dispatches across 2 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.
Event volume and casualty counts key off BO as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.
