Geopolitical Economics
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Business TodayIndia · American Samoa
Daily briefOperational risk · 90d →
American Samoa.
American Samoa · Pago Pago · 43.3K people · australia-oceania
Governmentunincorporated, unorganized Territory of the US with local self-government; republican form of territorial government with separate executive, legislative, and judicial branchesArea224 km²Active conflicts0CIA· Jan 2026
Stability Score?How the stability score is computedA weighted composite of seven pillars— conflict intensity, event volatility, arms activity, economic health, market stress, sanctions exposure, and humanitarian proxy. Each pillar is scored 0–100 (higher = healthier). The composite is weighted (conflict 25%, economy 20%, events 15%, the rest 10% each) and recomputed daily from strategic events, World Bank indicators, arms-transfer data, and sanctions records.
Risk tier: Critical < 25 · High 25–50 · Elevated 50–75 · Stable≥ 75.
Risk tier: Critical < 25 · High 25–50 · Elevated 50–75 · Stable≥ 75.
84.1
Moderate risk
31-day trend
Intelligence briefGenerated Oct 18, 2026 · CLAUDE-HAIKU-4-5-20251001 · 4 sources
The other side. See this brief from American Samoa's frame — local-language sources elevated, Western framing flagged.
BLUF · Bottom Line Up Front
No direct threats to American Samoa identified in 48-hour reporting period.
Recent intelligence reporting focuses on European agricultural stagnation, Ukraine-Russia fuel diplomacy, and Iraq's economic losses from US-Iran tensions. No articles or events directly reference American Samoa, its territory, citizens, infrastructure, or strategic interests. Monitoring continues for indirect regional impacts through Pacific partnerships.
Confidence HIGHDivergence LOWSingle-source claims 0
American Samoa · 90-day event volume
1
total events · 90 daily data points
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Key Judgments
01
No direct intelligence reporting on American Samoa in 48-hour cycle.
All provided articles address European agriculture, Ukraine-Russia energy diplomacy, and Middle East economic impacts. No source material contains references to American Samoa, its governance, security, or regional affairs.
high confidence4 sourcesEN · HU · AR
02
Global energy market volatility may indirectly affect Pacific island fuel costs.
Russian diesel exports resumption and US-Iran tensions create commodity price fluctuations. As an island territory dependent on imported fuel, American Samoa could experience secondary cost pressures, though no direct reporting confirms this.
moderate confidence2 sourcesEN · AR
Watchlist · next 48 hours
01
Emergence of direct reporting on American Samoa security or governance developments.
Indicator · Intelligence articles or official statements specifically mentioning AS territory, Pago Pago, or AS governance.
15%
02
Impact of global fuel price volatility on AS energy infrastructure costs.
Indicator · Public announcements of fuel price changes or energy policy adjustments by AS government.
25%
+How we produced this brief
Generated under ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft standards by CLAUDE-HAIKU-4-5-20251001. Evidence pack drawn from 4 dispatches over the trailing 48 hours, plus structured intelligence-event rows, extracted quantities, and threat-evidence records.
Local-language reporting is incorporated where available (EN), with explicit divergence flagging where local and Western framing diverge. Every claim ships with a calibrated confidence statement.
Stability components7-pillar breakdown · each 0–100, higher = healthier · 30-day trend per pillar
Conflict Intensity
100/100 · 25% wt
target conflicts: 0domestic conflicts: 0max escalation score: 0
Event Volatility
100/100 · 15% wt
target events: 0actor only events: 0domestic events: 0severe domestic: 0instability rate: 0.00%article coverage 90d: 262
Arms Activity
100/100 · 10% wt
arms imports: 0total value usd: $0conflict amplified: no
Economic Health
59/100 · 20% wt
gdp growth pct: 1.74%inflation pct: —unemployment pct: —
Market Stress
50/100 · 10% wt
total signals 30d: 2negative signals 30d: 1
Sanctions Exposure
100/100 · 10% wt
sanctioned entities: 0is sanctioning power: no
Humanitarian Proxy
73/100 · 10% wt
life expectancy: 73literacy rate: —
Risk matrix5 enterprise-decision dimensions · derived from the 7 stability pillars · higher = more risk
Political27Moderate
Security0Stable
Economic45Moderate
Regulatory0Stable
Operational10Stable
Risk dimensions are derived from the 7 stability pillars. Higher score = more risk (inverted from the stability score, where higher = healthier). Operational is a weighted composite intended for enterprise-decision use.
Peer comparisonSame-region countries by stability score · this country highlighted
Peer comparison · australia-oceania
Rank 6 of 30
0158.6
0266.0
0366.8
0474.6
0580.4
0684.1
0784.5
0886.1
EconomyWorld Bank · 10-year series · 7 indicators
GDP (current USD)
WB· 2022$871.0M
▲ $121.0M YoY
GDP per capita
WB· 2022$18.0K
▲ $2.8K YoY
Inflation (CPI)
WB—
Unemployment
WB—
Population
WB· 202446.8K
▼ 756.0 YoY
Military spend %GDP
WB—
Life expectancy
WB· 202473.0 yrs
▲ 0.1 yrs YoY
Internet users %
WB—
Security0 recent events · 0 conflicts · 0 transfers
Event volume · 90 days
1
Casualties (killed) · 90 days
0
High-severity events
No high-severity events for American Samoain this window. Either there genuinely isn’t much — or our sources haven’t caught it yet.
Latest dispatches10 in country corpus · sources come online as coverage grows
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Forward calendar · relatedUpcoming scheduled events · co-mentioned countries · conflicts · recent reports
+Methodology · how this profile is built
This profile draws from four data tiers. Baseline facts (geography, languages, religion) are from the CIA World Factbook snapshot of January 2026 — the final snapshot before the website was retired. Economic indicators refresh daily from the World Bank. Events, conflicts, dispatches, and entity mentions flow continuously from our continuous intelligence graph — sources come online as we add them. Intelligence briefs are generated daily under ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft standards.
Coverage of American Samoa will sharpen as we add local-language sources. Every field above carries a provenance chip so you can judge freshness for yourself.