United States
An enterprise-decision view of United States’s operational risk over the next 90 days. Scenario probabilities, sanctions exposure, chokepoints, and political outlook — for risk officers, supply chain teams, and analysts who need to act, not just read.
The Trump administration is systematically restricting Chinese technology access while maintaining selective export controls on US AI firms. Enforcement actions (chip seizures) and product bans indicate active supply-chain weaponization. Hithium's US manufacturing expansion suggests Chinese firms are adapting, but this will intensify US counter-measures over 90 days.
- Polestar EV ban from US market effective 2027
- $13M AI chip seizure at Kuala Lumpur Airport
- Trump administration pressure on OpenAI GPT-5.6 release
- Partial lift of Anthropic export restrictions signaling selective tech weaponization
- Chinese battery maker Hithium expanding overseas manufacturing to circumvent controls
Trump has issued explicit, repeated tariff threats against EU nations, demonstrating intent to weaponize trade policy. The EU's prior approval of a limited trade deal suggests failed comprehensive negotiation. Over 90 days, escalatory tariff announcements are highly likely, triggering EU counter-tariffs and potential trade agreement unraveling.
- Trump threatens 100% tariffs on EU digital services tax (stated twice in 30d)
- Claims to override existing trade agreements
- EU approved US trade deal capping import tariffs (suggesting prior negotiation failure)
- Trade tensions described as ongoing and escalating
- Spain's rare-earth discovery signals EU supply-chain diversification from US dependency
Legal authority for mass deportations is now established. Implementation over 90 days will displace hundreds of thousands, triggering humanitarian agency intervention, potential civil disobedience, and diplomatic complaints from source countries. While high probability, impact is domestic/humanitarian rather than systemic geopolitical.
- Supreme Court ruled 6-3 permitting deportation of 350K Haitians and 6K Syrians
- Ruling opens pathway for deportations affecting 1.3M immigrants from 17 countries
- Trump administration framing immigration as national security priority
- US Ambassador to India reassuring on immigration targeting (defensive posture)
- South American nations asserting sovereignty amid US-China competition (potential destination resistance)
Active tanker attacks in Hormuz indicate either Iranian proxy action or regional instability creating collision risk. US-Iran military strikes and UN condemnation suggest ongoing confrontation. While Trump administration seeks transactional relationships (requested Saudi cooperation on escorts per evidence), uncontrolled escalation remains plausible over 90 days.
- Oil tanker attacked in Strait of Hormuz (June 28, 2026)
- Broader four-month regional conflict ongoing
- Recent US military strikes on Iran (February 2026) escalated tensions
- 100-day Hormuz crisis previously pushed 5.8M into acute hunger
- UN condemning US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites as international law violations
Trump administration is consolidating executive control over strategic sectors (AI, military, finance) and claiming unprecedented personal power. While institutional resistance exists, recent Supreme Court rulings suggest weakened checks. Over 90 days, further executive overreach is likely, potentially triggering Congressional or judicial response.
- Trump views himself as 'most powerful man the planet has ever known' (per new book)
- Trump administration exerting political influence over OpenAI and Anthropic AI releases
- Trump proposes converting US military to 'rent-a-cop' service (demanding payment from allies)
- Trump launched World Liberty Financial crypto venture (personal wealth consolidation)
- Supreme Court granted Trump administration power to override immigrant protections (judicial deference)
The Trump administration is systematically concentrating control over AI, military, immigration, and financial sectors through executive action, with recent Supreme Court rulings on immigrant protections suggesting diminished judicial oversight. Trump's self-described role as 'most powerful man the planet has ever known' reflects maximalist executive ideology. Domestically, factional tensions are apparent between institutional constraints and executive overreach, with no imminent succession risk given Trump's dominance of the Republican Party. Internationally, the administration is replacing alliance commitments with transactional arrangements (demanding payment for military protection, threatening tariffs against allies), fundamentally destabilizing post-Cold War security architecture.
+Glossary & methodology
Operational risk here means the practical exposure that a business, government, or institution operating in or around United States would face. We model five dimensions (Political / Security / Economic / Regulatory / Operational) using a weighted blend of seven underlying pillars.
Scenarios are generated daily under ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft standards. Each scenario carries a calibrated probability, named indicators that would confirm or deny it, and impact across regulatory / kinetic / economic axes.
This page is the deeper-read companion to the United States country page for risk officers and operators. The country page covers daily news, judgments, and watchlist; this page covers 90-day strategic outlook.