Escalation trajectory · 90 days · composite of event frequency × severity × geographic spread
35,284
total events across belligerents · 96 daily data points
Annotated milestones
1 of 4
Source · intelligence_events · all severity tiersHover any annotated dot for full milestone
Fatalities · 90 days · weekly
9,537
5,701 Mexico (Government) · 3,836 Drug Cartels & International Support
Mexico (Government)Drug Cartels & International Support
Source · casualties_daily aggregated by ISO week14 weeks
Bottom Line
We assess with low confidence that the evidence pack contains no verified events directly related to Mexico drug cartel violence in the last 48 hours. The escalation score of 100/100 is not corroborated by any sourced reporting in this cycle. The evidence pack overwhelmingly concerns Peru's F-16 procurement, US-Iran diplomacy, and broader geopolitical developments — none of which pertain to Mexican cartel operations, US-Mexico security cooperation, or narcotics-related vi
Top 10
High-severity events
Severity-ranked events touching this conflict's belligerents · last 30 days
Top 10 shown · global share % = country’s share of worldwide production at this stageFull dataset via API · contact
No dispatches indexed for this conflict in the last 30 days.
Methodology
This brief was drafted daily by Claude Opus/Haiku under an ICD 203 analytic-tradecraft prompt: bottom line up-front, calibrated probability language (“likely,” “highly likely”), explicit confidence levels, and alternative-analysis sections. Drawn from 28 dispatches across 25 publications, stored in our ingestion pipeline across strategic_events, intelligence_events, threat_assessments, and entity_relationships.
Event volume and casualty counts key off US as the country anchor. Casualty figures above 100,000/day are filtered as extraction outliers pending manual review.
